Prediction market traders on Polymarket have assigned Spider-Man: Brand New Day a 54.5% implied probability of finishing 2026 as the year’s highest-grossing domestic film.
The market, which resolves on domestic calendar gross via Box Office Mojo and closes December 31, 2026, has cleared $9.47 million in all-time volume with $1.30 million in current liquidity.
Avengers: Doomsday sits second at 19.5%, while Toy Story 5 has surged to third at 13.4%, gaining 10.55 cents over the past month as Spider-Man’s contract slid 11 cents.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day is scheduled to open July 31, 2026, positioning it at the heart of the summer theatrical window.
Sony (NYSE: SONY), trading at $21.72 and down 15.6% year to date, holds Spider-Man’s theatrical rights through Sony Pictures and collects the largest single revenue slice from distribution, international licensing, and home entertainment.
Sony’s Pictures segment generated 1.49 trillion yen in FY2027 revenue, and the company has authorized a 500 billion yen buyback through May 2027, with analyst price targets sitting at $29.38 and a forward P/E of 17.
Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), trading at $103.73 with an analyst target of $129.49, co-produces Spider-Man through Marvel Studios and collects producer fees alongside a downstream Disney+ streaming window.
Disney’s Q2 FY26 entertainment SVOD operating income jumped 88% to $582 million, and the company raised its FY26 buyback program to over $8 billion, with eight directors acquiring shares at $96.96 on March 31, 2026.
IMAX (NYSE: IMAX), up 40.9% over the past year to $39.23, captures an outsized share of blockbuster grosses and has reaffirmed FY26 guidance of $1.4 billion in global box office with at least 14 Filmed For IMAX releases.
CEO Rich Gelfond, currently recovering from pneumonia, described the 2026 slate as “arguably the strongest we’ve ever seen,” and Spider-Man films have historically ranked among IMAX’s top performers.
Cinemark (NYSE: CNK), up 17.2% year to date at $27.24, reported its strongest first quarter since the pandemic, with Q1 2026 revenue of $643.1 million, up 18.9% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA more than doubling to $88.5 million.
Domestic concession per-cap hit a record $8.58 at Cinemark in Q1 2026, and the stock trades at a forward P/E of 13 against an analyst target of $34.00.
AMC Entertainment (NYSE: AMC), trading at $1.58 and down 54.3% over the past year, carries negative shareholders’ equity of $1.89 billion and roughly $4 billion in debt, making it the highest-risk exhibitor play.
CEO Adam Aron has explicitly cited Spider-Man: Brand New Day and Avengers: Doomsday in the company’s outlook, with January 2026 North American box office tracking 16% ahead of the prior year.
Hasbro (NASDAQ: HAS), up 30.3% year over year at $86.38, holds the Marvel master toy license, with Q1 FY26 adjusted EPS of $1.47 beating the $1.13 consensus by 29.66% and Magic: The Gathering revenue surging 36% to $469.6 million.
Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX), trading at $86.36 and down 7.9% year to date, benefits indirectly through a Sony Pictures output deal that routes theatrical films to its pay-1 streaming window after their theatrical run.
Netflix guided FY26 revenue to between $50.7 billion and $51.7 billion, with free cash flow raised to approximately $12.5 billion, though its exposure to any Spider-Man success remains diluted and downstream.
AMC reported attendance down 9.8% to 56.3 million in Q4 2025, a reminder that theatrical recovery remains uneven despite improving headline box office figures.
Polymarket’s 54.5% probability reflects current trader pricing rather than a guaranteed outcome, and investors watching this space should monitor Toy Story 5’s continued momentum as the July 31 release date approaches.
