Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) presented at Deutsche Bank’s European Champions Conference, with the broker holding its buy rating and DKK290 target price on the Danish pharmaceutical company.
The central focus of the presentation was the launch trajectory of Novo’s oral semaglutide product, which the company confirmed is not yet tracking the same escalation patterns seen with its injectable formulations.
Data capture through IQVIA, the healthcare analytics provider, has improved to approximately 65%, indicating growing but still incomplete visibility into prescription activity for the oral product.
Around 90% of prescriptions for the oral treatment remain in the cash-pay channel, meaning the vast majority of patients are not yet receiving insurance coverage for the drug.
Competitive pressures on the injectable side of the business are intensifying, with Canadian price discounting for semaglutide reaching between 40% and 65%.
US compounding of semaglutide, the active ingredient found in Ozempic and Wegovy, appears to have peaked, offering some relief to Novo Nordisk on that particular competitive front.
Despite that peak, existing compounded supply is expected to remain sticky in the market, with roughly 1.5 million patients still using compounded versions of the drug.
All of that compounded supply is sourced entirely from Chinese active pharmaceutical ingredient suppliers, adding a layer of geopolitical and supply chain complexity to the outlook.
Deutsche Bank’s Emmanuel Papadakis noted that conference discussions also covered the broader pricing environment, the navigability of semaglutide’s eventual loss of exclusivity, the company’s business development outlook, and pipeline assets including cagrisema, zenagamtide, and its myostatin programmes.
With shares trading at DKK288, Novo Nordisk sits just below Deutsche Bank’s target price of DKK290, reflecting what the broker characterizes as a finely balanced risk profile for the stock.
