Shares of Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) are on track for their best month since September as investors bet that Elon Musk’s AI and space empire stands to gain from NASA’s expanding lunar ambitions and growing SpaceX merger chatter.
TSLA stock jumped nearly 2% on Tuesday, marking its fourth consecutive session of gains.
NASA unveiled fresh details around its $20 billion Moon Base initiative, which aims to establish a permanent human presence near the Moon’s south pole by 2032 as the U.S. races China in the next era of space exploration.
The program includes robotic landers, hopping drones, autonomous rovers, cargo systems, nuclear and solar-powered infrastructure, and eventually semi-permanent lunar housing for astronauts.
NASA outlined a three-phase strategy involving up to 25 missions before 2029, ahead of future Artemis astronaut landings, with the effort backed by President Donald Trump’s administration.
NASA also announced new contracts involving Blue Origin, Intuitive Machines, Astrobotic, Astrolab, and Lunar Outpost for lunar landers, robotic systems, and mobility vehicles.
SpaceX remains central to NASA’s broader lunar ambitions through its 2021 Artemis Human Landing System contract, under which the company’s Starship vehicle will transport astronauts and cargo to the lunar surface.
Musk quickly amplified investor enthusiasm following NASA’s announcements, posting on X: “Time to build a major base on the Moon!”
In a separate post, Musk framed lunar and Martian colonization as essential to humanity’s survival, stating: “What matters is securing the long-term future of consciousness, both on Earth and other heavenly bodies.”
Musk added: “We cannot just focus on Earth, because there are irreducible external and internal cataclysmic risks.”
He called establishing self-growing civilizations on the Moon and Mars “the prime directive of SpaceX.”
According to SpaceX, Starship can deliver astronauts, habitats, rovers, and more than 100 tons of cargo directly to the lunar surface using reusable launch systems and in-space refueling technology.
Investor optimism was further boosted when SpaceX recently completed a largely successful Starship V3 test flight involving mock satellite deployments and a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean.
During the mission, SpaceX successfully deployed mock Starlink satellites, executed atmospheric re-entry maneuvers, and completed a controlled descent before the vehicle exploded after splashdown.
The test comes just weeks ahead of SpaceX’s expected IPO, which could become the largest public listing in history and potentially value the company at around $1.75 trillion.
Elon Musk has reportedly discussed internally the possibility of eventually merging Tesla and SpaceX as operational ties between the two companies and xAI continue to deepen, according to CNBC.
In its IPO filing, SpaceX disclosed that it has purchased hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of Tesla Megapack battery systems and Cybertrucks.
Merger speculation increased last week after Musk appeared to sidestep questions on the topic during a Forbes interview, responding: “Well, it’d be difficult for me to sort of comment on that, you know, because, you know, there’s publicly traded companies, and they’re publicly traded on ones, you know, about to be.”
When pressed on reports surrounding a possible SpaceX S-1 filing, Musk added: “I think I’m not allowed to comment on these things. It’s like a quiet period or something to that effect.”
SpaceX acquired xAI earlier this year in an all-stock deal valuing the combined entity at $1.25 trillion, with Musk since rebranding the combined operation as “SpaceXAI.”
Musk also defended xAI’s position in the AI race against OpenAI and Anthropic, stating: “What you say is true, but nonetheless our AI will be great — whether it is the best remains to be seen, but I will never give up. Never.”
Highlighting xAI’s relative youth compared to its rivals, Musk said: “Space(XAI) is only 3 years old. That’s half the age of Anthropic and quarter the age of OpenAI. Let’s see where things stand 3 years from now.”
Musk drew a parallel to SpaceX’s own difficult early years, noting: “SpaceX had achieved nothing of note after 3 years and was written off as dead after 6 years with 3 consecutive launch failures. But you may have noticed that things are different now.”
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around Tesla was “neutral” with “normal” message volume, while sentiment around SpaceX remained “extremely bullish” amid “high” message volume.
So far this year, TSLA stock has lagged its “Magnificent Seven” peers, making it the group’s third-worst performer, down 4%.
