Applied Digital Corporation (NASDAQ: APLD) has signed a 15-year lease valued at $7.5 billion with an investment-grade US hyperscaler at its Delta Forge 1 campus, a deal that materially reshapes the company’s revenue profile and raises the stakes on its broader infrastructure expansion ambitions.
The company simultaneously closed a $300 million senior secured bridge facility led by Goldman Sachs to fund construction of its third AI data centre at the Polaris Forge 1 campus in Ellendale, North Dakota. The new lease at Delta Forge 1, combined with existing agreements, pushes Applied Digital’s total contracted revenue above $23 billion across three hyperscaler relationships.
As part of the Delta Forge 1 transaction, Applied Digital retains an ownership stake in the newly formed ChronoScale Corporation, preserving upside beyond the fixed lease structure.
The investment narrative around APLD rests on the thesis that long duration AI infrastructure leases will eventually outweigh the company’s current losses, heavy capital requirements, and meaningful customer concentration risk. The $7.5 billion agreement strengthens the contracted revenue side of that equation but does not eliminate the execution risks surrounding construction timelines, project financing, and delivery at both Polaris Forge 1 and Delta Forge 1.
Analysts projecting the bull case estimate APLD could reach revenue of $2.6 billion and earnings of $467.2 million by 2029, implying annual revenue growth of approximately 100% from the current base of negative $119.8 million in net income.
A community narrative fair value estimate pegs the stock at $52.80, suggesting 24% upside from current levels. More bearish models see the stock as potentially worth less than half its current price, citing the debt burden and sensitivity to any slowdown in hyperscaler AI spending.
