President Donald Trump’s approval rating is now underwater in every single state that features a competitive Senate race in the 2026 midterm elections, according to an aggregation of recent polling data, with the most comprehensive state-level figures placing his national net approval at approximately minus 21 percentage points.
Civiqs data drawn from 99,409 registered voters’ responses between January 20, 2025, and April 20, 2026, shows Trump’s approval standing at 37% nationally with 58% disapproving, a figure that The Economist describes as “significantly worse” than Joe Biden at the same point in his presidency and worse than Trump himself during his first term.
In Arizona, where a competitive Senate race is expected, Trump records 42% approval against 54% disapproval for a net rating of minus 12, while North Carolina shows similar figures at 41% approval and mid-50s disapproval, and Pennsylvania stands at 39% approve to 55% disapprove for a net minus 16.
Michigan and Nevada each record 37% approval with 58% disapproval, Wisconsin shows 39% approve to 57% disapprove, and Georgia posts 37% approval against 58% disapproval, completing a picture in which every major battleground state Trump carried in 2024 has now flipped to showing a clear majority of voters disapproving of his performance.
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten noted on his programme that historical data shows presidents with negative economic approval ratings lose an average of 28 House seats in midterm elections, a figure that would be sufficient to hand Democrats a House majority regardless of how the Senate ultimately breaks.
Trump’s weakest numbers on specific issues come on the economy and the Iran conflict, with independent voters, who are typically decisive in competitive congressional races, showing particularly sharp opposition, with a Quinnipiac poll earlier this year finding independents at 25% approve and 68% disapprove among that group alone.
Prediction markets now place Democrats’ chances of retaking the House majority at above 50% in several tracker models, with election analyst Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin tracker showing Trump’s net approval reached a new second-term low of minus 18.9 as of early May 2026, a trajectory that Republican strategists privately acknowledge creates a fundamentally difficult environment for their incumbents in swing districts.
White House spokesman Davis Ingle pushed back on the polling narrative in a statement to Newsweek, saying the ultimate poll was the 2024 election when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly voted for Trump to deliver on his agenda, a formulation the White House has deployed consistently in response to unfavourable polling throughout the administration.
