SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ: SOFI) posted record first-quarter revenue of $1.1 billion on April 29, up 43% year over year and ahead of analyst estimates, yet the stock fell sharply on earnings day and has now retreated 52% from its 52-week high of $33. The disconnect between operating performance and price action reflects a specific investor frustration: management kept its full-year 2026 revenue guidance completely unchanged, disappointing markets that had anticipated an upward revision following the blockbuster quarter.
Net income more than doubled to $166.7 million, and adjusted revenue rose 41%. These are genuinely record-setting results for the digital bank, driven by strong lending demand, deposit growth, and expanding member counts. But unchanged guidance was read as a ceiling rather than a floor, prompting investors to sell the news.
Additional pressure has come from Muddy Waters, the prominent short-selling research firm, which published a short report against SOFI in late March. The report amplified an existing wave of selling that has pushed the stock from $33 to its current range near $16. The 52-week range sits between $13 and $33, suggesting the stock is currently trading in the lower third of its annual band.
On the positive side, CEO Anthony Noto made a personal share purchase of 15,878 shares on May 9 for approximately $250,000, a meaningful insider buying signal at current price levels. SoFi was also added to the FTSE All-World Index in March, broadening its institutional accessibility. Consensus analyst targets average $21.25, implying upside from current levels, though some valuation models targeting 24% annual revenue growth through 2028 suggest a fair value closer to $27.
The key near-term catalyst is a guidance revision. SoFi’s Annual General Meeting is scheduled for June 17, and Q2 results are expected around July 27, both of which give management the opportunity to raise the 2026 outlook. If lending demand holds and member growth continues, a guidance lift would likely be the single most powerful unlock for SOFI at this stage of its recovery.
