California’s 2026 gubernatorial race has entered its most consequential phase with just six weeks until the June 2 primary, following the dramatic collapse of Congressman Eric Swalwell’s campaign after sexual misconduct allegations in mid-April that reshaped a Democratic field that had already been watching nervously as fractured voter support threatened to allow two Republicans into the November general election.
The top-two primary system means that all candidates from all parties appear on a single ballot with only the top two vote-getters advancing to November, a structure that creates an unusual danger for Democrats in a state as reliably blue as California when their voters split across too many credible candidates while Republican voters consolidate behind just one or two names.
Steve Hilton, the political commentator and former aide to David Cameron who received a personal endorsement from Donald Trump, is currently polling around 17 percent and leading the overall field, with Republican rival Chad Bianco, the Riverside County sheriff, at approximately 14 percent, giving the GOP a combined support base that could theoretically push both into the top two if Democratic consolidation fails.
The New York Times polling average shows the Democratic side in disarray, with Tom Steyer at 14 percent, Xavier Becerra and Katie Porter both around 10 percent, and a massive 23 percent of voters still undecided, a figure that suggests the race remains genuinely fluid in both directions and that late campaign developments, endorsements, or debate performances could rapidly reconfigure the standings.
Swalwell had been tied for the Democratic frontrunner position before his suspension following allegations from a former staffer who detailed what she described as a violent sexual encounter, with CNN subsequently reporting claims from four additional women including one allegation of rape, a cascade of accusations that ended his gubernatorial ambitions and redirected Democratic voter support toward Becerra in particular.
Xavier Becerra, the former California attorney general and Biden administration Health and Human Services Secretary, has emerged as the most significant beneficiary of Swalwell’s collapse, with his polling rising notably in surveys conducted after the exit, though analysts at CalMatters and 270toWin warn that seven major Democrats still in the race makes genuine consolidation difficult even in the weeks remaining before the primary.
The California Democratic Party has been urging lower-polling candidates to drop out to prevent the nightmare scenario of two Republicans advancing, a plea that has so far produced limited results, with even candidates polling in single digits choosing to remain in the race through the primary in hopes of a late surge or benefiting from a further reshuffling of the field.
California Republican Party Chairman failed to formally endorse Hilton at its recent state convention despite Trump’s support, a failure that illustrates the limits of the former president’s influence even within his own party’s most committed activists in a state where Republicans have not won a statewide race since 2006 and have not held statewide office since 2011.
Kamala Harris, whose potential return to the race was floated briefly as Democrats searched for a consolidating figure, declined firmly through advisers who reiterated that her stated intention to step back from elected office following the 2024 presidential defeat remains firm, shutting down a storyline that might have generated momentum but would have required a complete reversal of her public positioning.
The deeper tension animating the Democratic side of the race is a failure of the party’s internal coordination mechanisms to produce either a consensus candidate before the filing deadline or sufficient pressure afterward to clear the field, leaving the nation’s most populous and economically significant state facing a gubernatorial election outcome whose exact shape remains genuinely uncertain with less than six weeks until Californians vote.
