A voracious reader of economic and development literature, the statesman has looked towards the Asian tigers for development models. He has been particularly inspired by Singapore, a politically stifled but commercially thriving bastion of banking and commerce.
As a result of these extremely encouraging economic indicators, Kagame acquired an impressive international reputation as the ideal, progressive 21st century African leader who is willing to learn from more successful states in other parts of the world. He has been able to attract crucial support from the international community and, as a consequence, to secure, large amounts of aid. Britain donated £70 million last year alone. High profile and influential fans of Kagame include UN Secretary General Ban Kee Moon, Bill Clinton, and Tony Blair.
However critics rebut that such achievements are shallow and successes could be easily undone if Kagame does not step up political reform. “What really makes economic recovery sustainable is a political environment that is safe. Without a safe political environment, without strong political institutions, all that has been achieved economically can disappear,” claims Sebarenzi.
Gwynne Dyer also believes that it has Kagame’s economic strategy of ensuring political stability by replicating Singapore’s development model is misguided: “If Rwanda could become the Singapore of Central Africa, then maybe its citizens would eventually come to believe that their stake in the country’s new stability and prosperity was more important than the history. But Singapore did not have so far to travel, and its history was not drowned in blood.”
Others correctly point out that economic recovery has so far failed to alter life in a meaningful way for the vast majority. Most Rwandans have been left groaning under the weight of poverty. The fleeing of Hutu elites after the genocide has ensured that a new Tutsi elite has virtually complete control over the country’s few economic resources, including revenues from the export of tea and coffee and sizeable aid packages from the international community.
The peasant majority are confronted with is becoming increasingly impoverished. As the population, which is 85% Hutu, increases every year, the accelerating rate of soil erosion is ensuring that the amount of cultivable land is narrowing. Need in the countryside is perhaps greater in Rwanda than it has ever been before. The majority of Rwandans still live below the poverty line of about $0.43 a day and 10% of the population are living with HIV AIDs. Life expectancy is only 49 years and nearly one in six children die before they turn five years old.
There is worrying evidence that impoverishment and desperation for ordinary Rwandans is causing the ethnic hostility, which led to the genocide, to resurface at the grassroots. Gwynne Dyer believes that Kagame is sitting on a tinder box of simmering tensions between Hutu and Tutsi. “The very words ‘Tutsi’ and ‘Hutu’ have now been banned in Rwanda, but a ministerial investigation in 2008 found anti-Tutsi graffiti and harassment of Tutsi students in most of the schools that were visited,” she said. “The army is exclusively Tutsi and the government almost entirely so, because Kagame does not really believe that this generation of Hutus can be trusted.”
That the central government is monopolized by Tutsis has not been lost on the Hutu dominated population.
Nor is Kagame’s style of dictatorship only isolating the Hutu majority. Tutsi elites living outside the country have angrily branded Kagame “’irresponsible” for putting inland Tutsis “’at risk”. A number of younger politicians have refused to return to their homeland until Kagame initiates genuine democratic reform.
Perhaps, then, it is not unfair to contend that Rwanda’s leader, although he has clearly set himself apart from other self-serving, ideologically myopic African dictators with his progressive and forward-thinking attitude, cannot magic away Rwandan history. The single greatest lesson of the genocide is that until ordinary people see greater evidence of social and political justice, old-established tensions and divisions will thrive.
Unfortunately, for Kagame, who is intent on an blunting memory of the past by seeking economic solution to deep-rooted political problems, history, lessons and teaching are dirty words. Addressing a football stadium of Rwandans on Liberation Day this year, Kagame exclaimed: “When people expend time and energy inventing… that there is no political space, press freedom, who are they giving lessons to? Who are they? Are these Rwandans complaining? Democracy: we don’t need any lessons in this.”
Yet, history is everywhere in Rwanda, and Kagame cannot overrule the strong predilection Rwandans, who are living with the emotional and physical scars of the events of 1994, have from extrapolating lessons from their past.
By refusing to allow Rwandans space to have reasonable debates about how the country can move forward, Kagame is contributing to the rematerializing of one troublingly familiar political mantra; that the Tutsis cannot be trusted in government.
It was the historical discourse which partly fueled the genocide as Hutu struck down Tutsis, out of revenge for Tutsis’ cruelty towards Hutu as their overlords during the colonial period and fear that the Tutsis would rise to power again. Kagame’s intolerant style of governance is in danger of adding newer, more modern threads to that discourse.
“History teaches everything including the future,” a famous French pro-democratic activist, Alphonse de Lamartine, once warned in the aftermath of the French revolution. With Rwanda having recently been shaken asunder by its own episode of brutal violence, Kagame would do well to give the Lamartines of Rwanda room to break the cycles of History. If not, the indications are that the glimmering, prosperous Rwanda of the future Kagame has launched into the construction of will amount to no more than castles built on quicksand.
85% of Rwanda’s population are Hutus,Kagame a tutsi wins 93% .What does that tell you? Does it not undermine you statements above that ” kagame does not trust this generation of Hutus”.
we didnt not vote for him I am sure like in my area of Kigombe in Ruhengeri many people decided not to go to the polling stations because they wanted to f=vote for Ingabire and I am sure unless the people of Rwanda the majority stand up for thweir own democracy otherwise we are going to die under Tutsi oppression again I am hoping that Hutus can accept to sacrifice their lives for democracy and genuine reconciliation in Rwanda…..I call upon them wherever they are to support us who are inside Rwanda now to liberate this nation of Rwanda because there is no way 85% people who do not like Kagame because he killed them ever since 1990s can vote for him 93%. Museveni went into bushes because of claimed rigging in Uganda I dont see any reasons why Rwandans cannot peacefully stand up against this obvious rigged elections. we dont have to take arms but we can stand up and refuse to go to work and push for a free and fair democracy in Rwanda for all rwandans
@Sina. I think the question you asked you addressed it to the wrong person. The author seems to know the reason Kagame may have won 93%. It’s not that Hutus love him but because he forced them to show to the world they loved him. If he dares to let them show him their dislike he would be surprised. He cannot allow such option because he would straightaway be taken in front of courts.
I am a hutu and we didnt vote for Kagame you SINA?we were forced to wake up very early in the morning before 4am by the army to go to vote and our voting cards were taken by the soldiers who used them to vote for Kagame and they later returned them to us. so where is the credibility of your statement saying that Hutus voted for that monster Kagame?No hutu can ever vote for this mosnter and no hutu will ever vote for Kagame willingly. you have to look for wherre you will go when America stops imposing Kagame on us Hutus. Since 400 years ago you are still enslaving us in 21st century.I wish all hutus whether us inside and those outside could join hands together we free ourselves from this monster. now we are going to suffer other 7 years more?Oh AMERICAAAAAAAA cant you hear that we are suffering under oppression?if we dont liberate this country our children will.
lorsque SINA, KAMANZI, AMBROSE parlent que ” kagame tutsi a été élu par les Hutu alors que les hutu sont 85 pour cent de la popu du rwanda, oppression Tutsi……” alors recommande de refuser d’aller travailler au lie de vivre opprimer par les Tutsi , j’ose espérer que ces sont des vulgaires ethénistes sans instruction aucune sinon,C’est très demmage qu’ils parlent démocratie. parler plutôt idée et progrès car on retiendra que les hutu ont dirigé le Rwanda pendant des décenies comme Kagame mais seul le résultat compte, un hutu mourra hutu et Tutsi mêmement
There are a lot of incorrect information in this article that point to lack of knowledge about Rwanda. For example the author says that BBC Rwanda program has been suspended yet the program is functioning normally; also Ingabire is written as Imbabire.
The author does not have the grasp of what is happening in Rwanda. There are no tensions in Rwanda, instead there is stability and tranquility. The survivors of genocide are slowly by slowly healing, mainly because of peace, stability and economic development. It is such tangible things that matter for the ordinary Rwandans; to put food on the table for families, have shelter, medicine and education.
this does not mean though that there is no democracy in Rwanda because there is. Democracy means many things, including regular elections, dicentralisation of power thus giving the ordinary people at the grassroots to determine the way they are governed and how much space they can allow government so that the latter is able to deliver socioeconomic services. All these exist in Rwanda.
However, Rwanda being a developing nation, its vulnerable to outside pressures as well as Rwandan opportunistic politicians. What the West should do, is to continue supporting the process and everything will be alright. Rwandans are very optimistic under President Kagame and the RPF as shown by a recent survey.
Jacobs and others should thus not worry about Rwandans because they are in their own hands and are thus safer. Political opportunists and destructive media are the only threats that Rwandans see today. Otherwise, President Kagame means well and does well for Rwandans and should be left alone to accomplish a noble mission of transforming a failed state in 1994 to a succes story and a beacon of hope that Rwanda is today.
@Jane. Racepoint is a London PR company which has been laundering RPF reputation on the international scene. The depiction of Rwanda which comes out of the description you give is no different from the one from Racepoint. I wonder why a government would need a costly makeover when it didn’t have many nasty spots it doesn’t want to be seen?
You are trying to discredit a well written article based on a few typing errors yet you make some yourself. I believe you meant Decentralization not “dicentralisation”.
And yes the BBC was shut down, for a period that amounted to 2 months, because it aired views that were contrary to the govt. guidelines. This is the same reason the two independent news papers have been closed.
Ms. Sherelle Jacobs, how can you graduate with first class honours and you fail to make the right interpretation of the current Rwanda? But any way even in Rwanda the masterminders of the 1994 genocide were PHD holders.
Let me help you with some current affairs in Rwanda:
The presidential elections in Rwanda have been praised by AU, EU, EAC, Common wealth, Rwandan civil society election observers and Rwandans in general. I want to remind one incidence in 2003 ,where a journalist from europe cried in Northern Rwanda , when Twagiramungu lost election. This the kind of people who pretend to love Rwanda more than Rwandans.
I would also like to remind Sherelle Jacobs that Twagiramungu was never arrested but he came to Rwanda to stand for presidential elections and lost and went back to europe. He could not win the elections for obvious. reasons. How can Rwandans vote for someone who is far away in europe without any touch of the situation on the ground and who is not part of the solution to the Rwandan problems. He just wanted a job i.e to be a president, and when he lost he returned to europe.
Ingabire is not different from Twagiramungu, she also had announcements on the radio Rwanda that there will be elections in Rwanda in August 2010, she packed her bags and off to Rwanda. The only difference with Twagiramungu was that she came armed to the teeth to carry on the 1994 agenda genocide. The first day of her arrival in Rwanda was bad news to Rwandans, she came asking for the memorial of Hutus. This was not acceptable to any Rwandan, because this was adding injury to the wound. This is the kind of opposition candidates, the Sherelle Jacobs type wish for Rwanda.
If Ingabire had stood in the recent conluded elections, there could be dead bodied of innocent Rwandans along the streets. So please Sherelle Jacobs mind the lives of Rwandans or leave us alone.
Some of you talk from point of ignorance on our countires, although you have strong academic papers. How can you say that BBC is not working in Rwanda. Please tune http://www.bbc.co.uk/greatlakes and you will be proved wrong.
The constitution of Rwanda stipulates power sharing, so RPF cannot dominate govt, legislature or any other govt institution.
Sherelle Jacobs, mind about the sources of your information; if you quote Carina, from HRW, her comments are always negative, Gwynne Dyer is also another self proclaimed enemy of Rwanda.
Regarding the status HIV prevalence in Rwanda, it is less that 3%, where do you get the 10% statistics?
Rwanda economy has improved and this is also the same with the standard of living of Rwandans. Income per capita has increased from 290 USD in 1996 to 590 USD now. The situation is getting better every year.
Sherelle Jacobs, better be objective and dont buy whole sale the ideas of Rusesabagina and Twagiramungu.
See you in Kigali in 2017.
I wanted to react to this pro kagame sympathisers who think that being a tutsi is being part of Kagame by blood and flesh.This article actually didnt not exhaust the account of the oppressions that Hutus are undergoing here in Rwanda. I am from Ruhengeri where all of us have been rounded in concentration camps called umudugudu and our fertile lands have been taken over by the government near the famous gorilla guest house which used to belong to the government and now is Kagame’s wife’s hotel where the world comes to look at the gorillas paying all the money to an individual instead to the people of Rwanda. Here we didnt vote for Kagame ever since even in 2003 we didnt vote him as he claimed this time around the RPF soldiers spent the whole night knocking on our doors reminding us how they killed us in 1998 saying that if we do not go to vote as earlier as 5am before the coming of the observers they are going to teach us a lesson because of that fear people were at the polling stations as early as 4am and they voting cards were taken by the soldiers and used them to vote and they were returned to us I am one of those people whose voting cards were taken by the soldiers. tht is the situation and even commenting on this blog might cost me life if I am caught
Human Rights groups are showing concern about brutality and bullying in the lead up to the pole but Salim Ahmed Salim, the chairman of the Commonwealth Observation Group praised the transparency of the elections. “Elections in Rwanda were conducted in a peaceful atmosphere,” Salim said. “The count in the polling stations was transparent and conducted fairly.”
Kamanzi you are creature of God no one will touch you, Rwandans must stand for their rights no one is going to fight for us only us. Good example is Mrs INGABIRE UMUHOZA VICTOIRE we have to follow her good and constructive example which is clear enough to everyone who love Rwanda. No matter how Kagame keep ignoring our peacefully CALL will not STOP us to fight him NON VIOLENT FIGHT, never giver up till the end!
Kagame’s Rwanda is ruled through a maliciously crafted apartheid environment which has modernized an archaic system of oppression/ exploitation of the majority Hutu by the Tutsi minority which prevailed before the 60s in the country. It’s the worst type of apartheid system which can ever exist because, at the opposite of the old South African apartheid, this one is legalized behind a framework of laws and practices – genocide ideology, revisionism, divisionism, genocide denial, education support for only Tutsi survivors, not being allowed to enter Kigali without wearing shoes, which for a non informed person seem justifiable. All these laws and practices only target and affect massively Hutus who are 85% of the population.
Thank you Sherelle Jacobs for this brilliant analysis.
Dont be deterred by those who are profiting from the regime and live in a state fo denial because truth is bitter.
I am really surprised that they would call you ignorant or question your academic qualifications because you hold a view that is diferent fron the official line, witout giving a convincing argument against the facts that you bring forward. .
Thanks for your courage to have an analysis that is not in line with the government discourse for fear of being labelled negationist or trivialising genocide.
In kinyarwanda there is a saying that ” only a fool says that he/she is the most intelligent” and that one’s one opinion without can lead to a catastrophe.
I would have thought that the critics would at least give some respect to the views of Joseph Sebarenzi, former speaker of the National Assembly under Paul Kagame, who lost almost his entire tutsi family and is now in exile.
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I pray that our leadership and all rwandans from all sides of the divide take head of the truth you bring out your article.
There is no peaceful solution to Rwanda until we take up arms again like Mr Kagame did.Kagame understand only one language which is Krachnikov Rwandans should wake up and pick it and march to Kigali..I dream seeing another march to the capital Kigali for a final liberation of Rwanda by Rwandans.Many we should not continue dying this way.UK-USA-Belgium will fail to intervene when they see its the revolution carried out by Rwandans,,please join me in this war to install democracy in Rwanda
Jacobs — don’t pay attention to those who react to your article with disrespectful comments. Rwandan society is so polarized that whatever angle you take, some people will disagree. I only wish they disagreed respecfully. Great job dear.
Extremism has not decreased, and extremism on one side feeds the extremism on the other side –and it only validates Kagame’s authoritarianism.
Those who preach war don’t know war: it only adds deaths to deaths. If war was a way to achieve peace for all and democracy, Rwanda would have become peaceful and democratic because Rwandans have been fighting for the last 50 years.
True liberation will be the liberation of all Rwandans. True democracy will include all Rwandans (Hutu and Tutsi). True security will be the one that makes all Rwandans safe. Otherwise, Rwandans will continue regardless their ethnicities.
Best,
Joseph