Answers to Questions by the Valdai Discussion Club
This interview was originally published by RIA Novosti in Russia. It has been republished here with permission from the interviewee.
What is the current state of relations between Russia, Ukraine and EU?
As of late August 2011, these relations are in a holding pattern, as there are several options for Ukraine on the table, and no final decision has been made which one to choose – association with the EU, involvement in the Russia-led Customs Union, or continued domestic stagnation and international isolation. Neither the European nor the Russian leaders, nor even the Ukrainian leadership, seem to be clear about the path Ukraine will take in its foreign relations, in the near future. To be sure, the new Ukrainian President has announced repeatedly that he will continue the Orange governments’ policy of rapid rapprochement with Brussels. However, a number of recent domestic developments question the feasibility of such a policy, if not the sincerity of Kyiv’s pro-European announcements. In spite of its dozens of public overtures to Brussels in recent months, the Ukrainian leadership looks fundamentally confused about the preconditions it has to meet and the implications that it will face should the signing and ratification of the Association Agreement with the EU come into reach.
That said, signs of confusion can also be seen in the recent behaviour of Russia and the EU. Moscow seems to be torn between its obvious aim of seducing Ukraine into a new special relationship – if not a new union – with Russia, on the one hand, and its short-term economic interests, on the other. The gas agreement signed by then Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in January 2009, under pressure from both the Kremlin and Brussels, is in Russia’s current economic interests. However, Ukraine is now paying more for gas – even after the adjustments following the Kharkov Agreement on renewing Russia’s lease of the Sevastopol base – than Germany, for instance. With such trade policies, the Kremlin is increasingly alienating both the relatively pro-Russian politicians currently in power in Kiev, and the Russian-speaking population of eastern and southern Ukraine.
Brussels, in turn, has recently made the EU’s relationship to Ukraine one of its top priorities, thereby acknowledging the geopolitical dimension of Ukraine’s further development. However, the EU’s executive bodies continue to refuse to provide Ukraine with a clear, if non-binding and long-term prospect of membership, in the Union. This policy is pursued in disregard of the will of the European Parliament, as expressed in the EP Resolution on Ukraine of February 25, 2010. It also contradicts social scientific research that has found that a sufficiently credible and relevant “carrot” – and not only “stick” – is a crucial precondition for the deep Europeanization of a transition country.
All three actors – Russia, the EU and Ukraine – will ultimately have to settle on long-term foreign policy aims and strategies. Presumably, this will have to happen soon in so far as the negotiation of the Association and Free Trade Agreements between the EU and Ukraine is coming to a close. The signing and ratification of these agreements in the parliaments of the EU and member states will presumably raise the political salience of Brussels’ future relations with both Kyiv and Moscow to new heights.
How will the Nord Stream project affect the Russia-Ukraine-EU triangle?
The main, obvious effect of the Nord Stream pipeline will be a disruption in the foundations of Russia’s relationship with Belarus and Ukraine. Currently, there exists a certain balance of economic power between Moscow, on the one hand, and Minsk and Kiev, on the other. While Belarus and Ukraine are dependent on Russian gas supplies, Russia is reliant on there being continuously and fully functioning pipelines passing through the territories of its two “brother nations.”
The new transportation options following the opening of Nord Stream will not cause an immediate conflict. However, it may prove seductive for the Kremlin to use its new economic leverage over the two former Soviet republics toward political ends. One can only hope that the Russian leaders will be aware of the ambivalent meaning of such behaviour. The immediate gains that Russia could reap from using Nord Stream for political purposes may seem significant, but the long-term effects of using its new economic leverage will be less clear, as in the case of Russia’s “successful” negotiation of a new gas agreement in January 2009. Ukraine’s Russian-speaking population is becoming disillusioned with Russia, as a result of the high gas price Russia is demanding from Ukraine. Should Russia use Nord Stream to pressure Ukraine even more, the disappointment felt by former friends of Russia in Ukraine will only grow.
How do you see this triangular relationship developing in the future, for example, in the next 5-6 years?
The relationship will become rather complicated given the various EU initiatives under way in Eastern Europe, on the hand, and Russia’s continued illusions about sustaining its sphere of influence in Northern Eurasia, on the other. Initially, this concerned the Eastern Partnership, which has put under question Moscow’s claims to hegemony over the post-Soviet East European and South Caucasian space. In as far as Russia is making a point of keeping its distance from this initiative, every new step of rapprochement between the Eastern Partnership countries could put Brussels at loggerheads with Moscow.
Moreover, the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement, if successfully signed and ratified, is going to be the largest foreign treaty ever concluded by both, Ukraine and the EU. Should Russia choose not to pursue a parallel policy of rapprochement with the EU, the DCFTA will only create more distance between Ukraine and the Russia-dominated Eurasian trading area. The Political Association and Free Trade agreements as well the envisaged new visa-free travel regime will, sooner or later, also have spill-over effects in both Ukraine and the EU. The ratification of these three treaties and their gradual implementation could, in just 10 years time, alter Ukraine’s place in Europe. Should all the various projects currently under way between Ukraine and the EU be successful, Ukraine’s membership not only in the EU, but also in NATO, may well appear on the agenda again.
In light of this forecast, my advice for the Kremlin is to intensify Russia’s relationship with the EU and to re-define its stance toward NATO. None of the aforementioned developments need to become problematic if Russia also becomes a WTO member, institutes a visa-free travel regime with Europe, re-engages in close cooperation with NATO, and puts her relations with the EU on a new contractual footing. On the contrary, within such a scheme, Russia could interpret Ukraine’s gradual integration into Western structures as steps towards closer Russian-Western cooperation. Ukraine does not have to become the political, diplomatic and cultural battleground for some new “Great Game” between Russia and the West in Eastern Europe. Rather, Ukraine’s gradual inclusion in various Western institutions should be seen by all three sides – Kyiv, Brussels and Moscow – as part and parcel of the creation of a new pan-European security structure, a common trading and travel zone, and, eventually, a transcontinental community of shared values in the northern hemisphere.
If anyone is wanting to have at least average Intelligence in the brain, then they should remember that Regardless Of Temporary Deceptive Appearances And Nice Lies To The Contrary; That The Fundamental Things Will Always Apply As Time Goes By.
This is regardless of how much we would wish that things would or could be different, because; for those of you who are above moron status, the fundamentals things are fundamental; and this is why they will always apply as time goes go.
Germany has always wanted to dominate at least Continental Europe, and they will always want to dominate at least Continental Europe, because this is Fundamental to the German character.
We see that Germany make a big mistake that it cannot recover from in the Second World War, because if Germany had been less ambitious and just taken France and the British Isles, then they would have dominated all of Europe.
Germany has to deal with the changed reality of their failure that was destined to occur because of their over ambitious schemes in the Second World War, and because of Hitler’s misplaced love for England and the British Empire.
Even before Germany surrendered in the Second World War, Germany was making plans for a new German Reich, and the English were aware of it, because they had their spies, but more importantly, the Evil English Empire knew from first hand experience, and a little common sense that the fundamental things apply as time goes go.
We need to understand that the English and their American Puppets will always be against any German Reich, Third Reich, Fourth Reich, Fifth Reich, etc, because the fundamental things apply as time goes by, and England fancies itself as the Global Ruler, and European Ruler.
England has France as an Ally or Puppet, because America will steal Canada from the French if France does not be Anglo-America’s Puppet.
Anglo-America knew that it had to create the Greater Croatia, Greater Albania, in order to keep Germany’s funds flowing into Anglo-America’s war machine.
The Fourth German Reich did not need a Greater Serbia which Yugoslavia was, and Anglo-America knew that Germany wanted the break up of Yugoslavia, because this was fundamental to any German Reich, as Serbs will not be wanted.
The Evil Plan was a smaller Serbia, even though Europe knows that a Greater Serbia is what is needed for a counter to any German Reich.
What needs to be clearly understood by the dull thinkers is that Germany began scheming the next Reich, before they even surrendered.
The document, also known as the Red House Report, is a detailed account of a Secret meeting at the Maison Rouge Hotel in Strasbourg on August 10, 1944.
There, Nazi Officials ordered an elite group of German Industrialists to plan for Germany’s post-war recovery, and to prepare for the Nazis’ return to power to work for a strong German Empire, or the Fourth Reich.
Obviously, they did not know all of how they would achieve all their Evil Goals, given the changed circumstances, but they had their best Committees working on it overtime.
Those German Fourth Reich Committees are continuing to work on the Fourth Reich Project, even though new People have replaced the old People on those Committees.
The German Plan is to make all European Countries subservient to Germany, even Russia, but this time it has to be economic domination rather than militarily domination.
The Nazi Pig appeared to be washed in World War 2, but it is fundamental for Pigs to return to the filthy mud, because the fundamental things apply as time goes by.
After Anglo-America created greater Croatia, Anglo-America knew that once it gives Germany and Europe a Greater Albania, then Germany will ask America to leave Continental Europe Completely and Permanently.
Germany had to accept the plausible Anglo-American lies concerning Camp Bondsteel, because Anglo-America knows what Germany is thinking.
Germany had to grit their teeth and pretend to smile, and Anglo-America made this easier with their lies.
This is why the Anglo-American written Ahtisaari Plan said that NATO would be the final authority in Kosovo, because NATO spelt backwards, or forwards is USA.
The Ahtisaari Plan did not allow Kosovo to join up with any other Country or region, and this was to prevent a Greater Albania, which was one step closer to the Fourth Reich, and it meant America would leave the European Continent.
Germany wants to help its former Nazi Ally Romania make a Greater Romania, and it requires Russia’s help with this because of Moldova and Transnistria.
Belgium, Finland, France, Ireland, Holland, Poland, and Romania are the other European Union Countries who have not as yet Fully Implemented the already Negotiated and signed SAA Agreement with Serbia.
It could be that Romania is under Nazi German Orders not to implement the SAA Agreement with Serbia, because Germany will not let Moldova join the European Union if Romania does not follow Nazi Orders.
Today’s Romania is different to the Puppet State of World War 2, and the Secret Devil Worshipping Anglo-American Politicians have told the Politicians of Belgium, Finland, France, Ireland, Holland, Poland, and Romania, that they will send the invisible demons to torture them in the invisible realm if they implement the SAA Agreement with Serbia (Mark 5: 1-13).
The Secret Devil Worshipping Anglo-American Politicians have told the Serbian President and Parliamentarians that they will send the invisible demons and torture them in the invisible realm, unless they fully puppetize themselves to the Modern Day Nazis of Europe and betray not only their own People, but the rest of Humanity (Mark 5: 1-13).
If Germany wants its Fourth Reich, then they have to revoke their support for Kosovo Albanian Unilateral declaration of independence, so that America can leave Europe, and if Anglo-America does not want a Fourth German Reich, then they must create a Greater Serbia.
England wants Serbia with Kosovo to be its Puppet, or Ally if it makes you think you are important, and this is why they did not like the Unilateral approach on Kosovo.
Germany did not want all of Europe and the World to know that the Nazi Pig is back in the filthy mud, and this is why they did not like the Unilateral approach on Kosovo, but Anglo-America are more than happy to Secretly work against the Fourth German Reich.
I think that the best thing for a new Europe, is to have the West German border as one western border, and Russia as the Eastern border of a new European Union, that does not include England, France, Spain, Portugal, Holland, and useless Italy where there can be a Greater Croatia, Greater Serbia, Greater Bulgaria, Greater Romania, and other Greater Countries, and that Moldova and FYROM will be divided to their neighbouring Countries.
I have nothing against Spain, but their Geography of being on the other side of Anglo-America’s anti German Puppet, France makes it impractical.
These Countries should default on Debts, and then go to their own Currency, where Germany can be the Banker, but Only for the new Eastern European Union.
We are back to the days of the Third Reich, where instead of the German Army murdering the subhuman Europeans, it is the German engineered Financial Crisis that is doing it at no cost to the Fourth Reich.
Germany cunning used the Albanians to prove to all of Europe, that different races cannot and should never trust each other to live in the same Country.
Germany is especially pleased with this Fact being totally accepted in Britain and America, in order for the White and Black to kill each other, in those Countries, because the German Army could never invade Britain and America these days to do the killing.