Despite AFRICOM’s insistence that they only operate one base and keep a “small footprint,” the facts point towards an increased U.S. presence on the entire continent. For the past decade, the Department of Defense has strategically positioned drone and Special Forces bases throughout Africa to conduct surveillance, intelligence, and limited engagement operations against terrorist groups and militants. This stands in contrast to the large-scale military engagements and occupations in Iraq and Afghanistan.
On a continent that is rife with ethnic clashes and terrorism, this strategic approach by the Pentagon has the potential to be a very effective model. While the conventional U.S. military strategy is focused on the Asia pivot, the Obama administration has downplayed the shift to Africa and deployed JSOC and aerial intelligence to combat terrorism. This could potentially lead to blowback, should several factors come into play.
While the U.S. already conducts drone strikes in Somalia, a majority of drone operations in Africa appear to be unarmed and focused on surveillance. However, the possibility of U.S. officials choosing to arm the drones runs the risk of significant civilian casualties. In addition, the JSOC capture-or-kill raids can, at times, violate the national sovereignty where it takes place if the U.S. fails to notify or work with the host government.
The U.S. could have an effective counter-terrorism model in Africa provided that it 1) operates within international legal parameters, especially with drones, 2) works with host governments in regards to drones and HVT raids, and 3) maintains a low-visibility in foreign military assistance and Special Forces operations. The vital question that must be asked and considered is, will an increased U.S. presence reduce, or escalate terrorism in Africa?
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