In 2014, two events laid the groundwork for a collapse of the status quo.
After over 60 years of conflict between Arabs and Jews in Israel/Palestine and over 20 years of political gridlock during the so-called Oslo Peace Process, conditions and events on the ground may be coming together to bring about significant changes in 2015.
In 2014, two events laid the groundwork for these changes. First, the horrific Israeli war on Gaza, which killed over 2,000 Palestinians, most of whom were women and children, and which brought complete devastation to the infrastructure in Gaza, significantly altered the views of both the Palestinians and the international community at large, about the nature of this intractable conflict.
Second, the Palestinian Authority (PA) under President Mahmoud Abbas finally decided not only to talk and to issue threats about internationalizing the conflict, but also to actually take some action. These events, combined with the changing political situation within the major players—Israel, Palestine, the U.S. and the EU—have resulted in a much different political landscape.
The devastation and humanitarian crisis resulting from the Gaza War has united Palestinians, if not their leaders, not only in Israel/Palestine, but also in the diaspora. Within the international community, particularly in Europe, the devastation wrought on a trapped, defenseless population by the self-proclaimed “Jewish State”, has contributed to an increase in not only anti-Israel sentiment, but also anti-Semitism among the general population.
Within the international Jewish community, a population long supportive of human rights, criticism of Israeli government behavior and support for boycott, divestment and sanction (BDS) of Israel is becoming more common and vocal.
Organizations such as Jewish Voice for Peace (JVP), a U.S.-based group which advocates for “peace, social justice, equality, human rights, respect for international law, and a U.S. foreign policy based on these ideals”, has seen its membership, contributions and influence grow enormously.
The PA, seeing 20 years of fruitless negotiation go nowhere, faced with choices of living with ongoing occupation, pursuing a Palestinian state on the international stage or violent resistance, has finally decided to pursue statehood and membership in international organizations through the UN.
The U.S., under Israeli pressure, has attempted to thwart this effort at every turn, several times vetoing resolutions that reflect its own policies.
Despite strong U.S. opposition, the PA has achieved Non-member State status in the UN and in April 2015 will become a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC), a status which will allow it to bring war crimes charges against Israel as well as restrain its own ability to use violence against civilians to achieve its political goals.
The U.S. and Israeli response to these actions has been to threaten to cut off funding to the PA. Israel has begun to withhold payment of tax revenues that it collects on behalf of the PA in accordance with agreements under the Oslo accords. U.S. law mandates a cutoff of aid to the PA should it bring a legal case against Israel in the ICC, and legislation has already been introduced in Congress to cut off all aid.
These two sources of funding make up a significant portion of the PA budget. In past instances of a cutoff of funds, the oil rich Gulf States have made up the difference. In today’s environment of low oil prices, an environment that is already straining budgets in the Gulf States, such a rescue is unlikely.
Should the funding cutoff continue for a period of time resulting in non-payment of salaries, a collapse of the PA is a likely outcome. This would end PA security cooperation with Israel, forcing Israel to bear the entire burden and cost of maintaining security, straining an already stretched Israeli budget situation.
On the domestic political side, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s unstable governing coalition has collapsed and snap elections have been scheduled for March. While any significant change in government policy is unlikely after the elections, the faces will almost certainly change.
In Palestine, President Abbas, an unelected leader, is nearing the end of his run and is thinking about his legacy. He will find it difficult to back down.
In the U.S., the Obama administration, having failed in two efforts to mediate the conflict, having maintained a staunch pro-Israel position throughout, faced with a hostile Congress and a lame duck status, seeing the PA move the issue to the UN, has lost all ability to influence the outcome. Obama is unlikely to wade into this quagmire again.
While nothing is certain in this fluid environment, it seems that major shifts are likely. Whether or not they are positive remains to be seen.
2015 will probably not be a game changer for Palestine, but it will certainly be the beginnings of a game changer for Palestine.
The British established a de facto “Israel” long before the Mandate ended, the US since 1947 has given unconditional financial and military support for Israel and has allowed mostly European immigrants to create and maintain an artificial State against the wishes of the intrinsic population.
That`s the bottom line, and for 67 years the Palestinian “voice” has been silenced in the west and particularly in the US. With internet access more and more are realising the reality of Palestinians subjugation, world opinion is moving away from unconditional support for Israel based on the fact that Israelis are “just like us”
Without military superiority it is doubtful Israel would have survived in it`s current form, and it`s a funny thing that history teaches us, it`s the simple fact that no State, Country or Empire has ever maintained it`s military superiority, Israel, and The US, will not be able to buck that trend, much as they may imagine they will, they won`t.
The borders we now recognise in the Middle East, are also artificial, and imposed by the West after WW1 along with Governments willing to do as the West instructs.
It`s sobering to realise it was only in December 2001 when “the will of the people” started what the West coyly called “The Arab Spring”. It should now be called “The Arab Revolution” and it`s happening in every M.E. Country, including Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, with the material results of The Islamic State imposing it`s “Will of the People”.
Combine this with last weeks US announcement of reductions in US foreign military bases, a complete reversal of over 70 years of US expansion of foreign military bases, then 2015 as the start of a game changer, starts to look a distinct probability. .
Whoops! Sorry the Tunisian “Arab Spring started December 2011, just over 3 years ago, not in 2001 as I posted.
Reality and not missleading reportaze:
Modern times Hans Christian Anderson absurd story:
The wolf was invited to take part in a anti carnivore demonstration by the sheep’s
The hypocrisy of the EU politicians culminates with the attending of the demonstration by Abbas:
Abbas terrorism record:
1:””Funds for the 1972 Munich Olympic massacre of 11 Israeli athletes were provided by Mahmud Abbas””
(Wrote Abu Daoud the massacre planer)
2: “”Muhammad Abbas, was one of the Palestinians terrorists who took part in the hijacking of the cruise ship Achille Lauro in 1985.””
Leon Klinghoffer, the elderly disabled Jewish-American in a wheelchair who was shot and pushed overboard by the terrorists
3: ” We are in line with Hamas opposing Israel’s right to exist””
“”Our public statements recognizing Israel’s right to exist to the West are designed “to trick the Americans””
Declared by Mahmud Abass in a meeting with Hamas.
4; Abbas education system promotes terrorism and hate Jews.
Abbas provides funds to terrorists families and streets are named after terrorists that killed Israeli women, children and disabled.
5: “”Nazi Holocaust had been exaggerated and that Zionists created “the myth” of six million murdered Jews, a fantastic lie.””
* The Jews which were killed by the Nazis were actually the victims of a Zionist-Nazi plot””
Mahmud Abass wrote in his doctoral thesis at Moscow Lumumba University :
6: The Israeli Law Center “”volunteer group submitted a complaints against Abbas to ICC for alleged “war crimes.”
Abbas is responsible for missile attacks targeting Israeli cities and citizens, executed by the PLO.
7: Abbas is head of the unity government with Hamas :
The following points are from Hamas Islamist charter:
**: Peace &quiet for Christians and Jews would not be possible except under Islam
** Sharia goes for any land the Moslems have conquered by force till the Day of udgment
(Areas they refer are :Paris down India– Vienna diagonal Caucuses)
** “The day of judgment will not come until Moslems fight killing the Jews.
The stones and trees will say
O MOSLEM, THERE IS A JEW BEHIND ME, KILL HIM””
** Spanish journalist said Hamas would kill Gaza reporters if they filmed rocket fired from civilian areas, hotels, schools and hospitals- while encircled by Gazan children, women, and elders for protections.**
Sorry Shein, but posting selected Hasbara propaganda, does nothing to encourage debate. At the best it simply provides an opportunity to list Israeli crimes, and what`s the point of that.
–U.S. law mandates a cutoff of aid to the PA–
Only because PA expects some justice from ICC (International Criminal Court)!