Several weeks ago, Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn conducted an interview in which he threatened northern neighbor, Eritrea. Desalegn warned that Ethiopia has shifted its policy towards Eritrea, and is now determined to unseat Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki by force. The interview was quickly followed by news that the Red Sea Afar Democratic Organisation (RSADO) – a terrorist group harbored and financed by Ethiopia – has vowed to “step up military attacks” to topple the Eritrean government.
While the respective statements are serious – in that they precipitously challenge, if not flagrantly violate, accepted international norms, laws, and diplomatic protocols – they do not constitute “breaking developments” per se. For example, prior to his passing, the late Meles Zenawi had similarly changed Ethiopia’s policy toward Eritrea from one based on “no war-no peace” to the active pursuit of “regime change” in Asmara. Further, the RSADO has made similar threats in the past. Rather, the developments are possibly better understood within the broader context of Ethiopia’s own internal socio-political challenges and dynamics.
In the fields of political science and international relations, the diversionary theory of war and foreign policy is one of the most speculated about and debated concepts. Most simply, it argues that political leaders who are confronted with public antagonism over domestic economic, social, and political problems may seek to divert the populace’s attention from domestic problems and strife by focusing upon external issues – thus hoping to survive politically. Shifting national attention to an external entity or topic can absolve vulnerable leaders of blame, produce a “rally around the flag” effect, garner support or buy time for leaders.
Within this analytical framework, Desalegn’s remarks offer much insight. By shifting the emphasis to Eritrea, Desalegn removes the spotlight from his own government’s crises and troubles as it continues to face rising popular discontent with its various policies, crackdowns, and interference in socio-religious affairs. Further, with “democratic elections” on the near horizon, the comments serve to burgeon Desalegn’s image as a strong leader.
The Ethiopian regime’s challenges – and response via harsh repression and silencing of all forms of dissent – were highlighted by the April arrest (and ongoing detention) of the “Zone 9” bloggers.Troublingly for Desalegn, the issue refuses to “go away” and instead has garnered increasing international attention and condemnation. As well, coinciding with the arrests were mass protests by Oromo civilians, especially students, condemning the “Addis Ababa Master Plan.” This led to a brutal crackdown by Ethiopian authorities and scores of arrests, injuries, and deaths.
The simmering discontent within Ethiopia was mirrored byprotests in Washington, DC during the recent US-Africa Summit. Hundreds of Ethiopian protesters gathered outside the State Department to vociferously denounce the Ethiopian government and also demand the US “stop funding [Ethiopia’s] dictators.”
In addition to the various protests, the government faces an ongoing insurgency by the separatist Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF). In attempting to counter the ONLF, the Ethiopian army has engaged in executions, rape, torture, arbitrary arrests, and various other abuses. Ethnic groups residing within and around the region have endured arbitrary detentions, torture, and mistreatment in detention, as well as severe restrictions on movement and commercial trade, and minimal access to independent relief assistance – all of which serves to inflame ethno-regional tensions and support the resistance.
Although Desalegn leads a country that has witnessed some economic growth, and improvement in agriculture – which accounts for nearly half of Ethiopia’s economic activity – much of the progress has actually been driven by an out of control “land grab.” Many multinational companies and private speculators vie to lease millions of acres of the country’s most fertile territory from the government at bargain basement prices. Consequently, this has engendered numerous rights violations (particularly via villagization programs), much discontent, and growing resistance by indigenous communities. Further, national poverty and drastic inequalities remain prevalent. Around 90 percent of the population of 94 million still suffers from numerous deprivations, ranging from insufficient access to education to inadequate health care; average incomes are still well below $500 a year; and more than 30 million people still face chronic food shortages.
Overall, Desalegn’s recent comments regarding Eritrea remain aligned with previous stances taken by the Ethiopian government. Further, they serve to deflect attention away from the Ethiopian regime’s serious internal challenges and popular discontent. With “democratic elections” on the near horizon – which have historically involved widespread tension, violence, and crackdowns – Desalegn’s comments also attempt to strengthen his image, while laying any potential troubles or disorder at Asmara’s door.
this man, Fikrejesus Amahazion, is a blind supporter of shabia! shabia is already dying cearly on the streets of asmara.Let him go and confirm the situation on nesanet avenue!
fekereyesus amhasion,the foolish kebesaman,the dull hgdf can’t write even a single word on behalf of RED SEA AFAR PEOPLE.Whether you like it or not,whether you write or not we THE RED SEA AFAR PEOPLE are not terrorists but we strongly seek to be free from the kebesa people of eritrea! we donot want to live with you.Enough is enough,eritreanism is poverity,immigration ,much exodus,militarism,bastard life.we donot seek to live with kebesa of eritrea.
kebesas you can write your bastard history for your self!
“Around 90 percent of the population of 94 million still suffers from numerous deprivations, ranging from insufficient access to education to inadequate health care; average incomes are still well below $500 a year; and more than 30 million people still face chronic food shortages.”
This HGDF diatribe is one of the worst in content, and the novice HGDF cadre should try to learn concocting believable lies (although time is catching up). The quest of the time is not what goes in Ukraine, Russia or in Ethiopia but removing the malignant cancer, the very incurable tumor that has been permeating into all parts social fabric of Eritrea. The focus of the time is neither Hailemariam, nor Abdulqadir but eradicating the source of Eritrean misery ISIS Aforki not only from the political periphery but also from our memory. Eritreans are risking their lives to the bullets of conscript HGDF army while fleeing the country they love to just anywhere. It is sad to read the propaganda of HGDF baboons narrating irrelevant things.
Any person can Google to see he fact here https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/er.html
ijast find out that PM HAILEMARIAM DESALEN make the comment at the AFRICAN LEADERS summit in DC so acording the report he make the comment to make his MASTER happy like the former PM MELES use to say evry time he come TO WASHINGTON DC he use to say REGIME CHANGE in ERITREA then after that he gets abig HANDOUT AID
well written article.