Introduction
Relations between two countries worsened after ethnic Armenia forces occupied Azerbaijani territories between the years of 1988 and 1994. Since the 1994 ceasefire, the Karabakh conflict has remained frozen despite international mediation. This article aims to explore whether Armenia is truly on the winning side, as well as showing Azerbaijan’s major advantage in this conflict. Research and analysis shows that Armenia experienced economic, demographic, and political crises after the conflict, putting the country in an undesirable situation, while ongoing conflict prevents Armenia from solving its economic and demographic problems. Unlike Armenia, Azerbaijan is doing well with the help of its oil reserves, experiencing an oil boom at the end of the twentieth century. This helped to improve country’s economy by decreasing both unemployment and the poverty rate. As Armenia has no such resources, it must rely on expanded trade to improve its economy. Moreover, Turkey and Azerbaijan closed their borders with Armenia a result of the conflict. Closed borders with two of four neighbor countries prevents Armenia from expanding trade and receiving investment, thus harming its economy and leading to demographic problems as more and more people leave the country every year in search of economic opportunity. The continuing occupation of Azerbaijani territories by Armenia puts the latter in a disadvantageous position.
Brief Background
Azerbaijan, as a most powerful and resource-rich country in the South Caucasus region, uses its power and resources to increase its importance in the region and pressure countries like Armenia to abandon offensive politics against Azerbaijan. It is important to note that Armenia occupied more than 16 percent of Azerbaijani territories as a result of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict, displacing approximately 800,000 Azerbaijanis from their territories. Additionally, the United Nations recognizes the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan Republic and has four resolutions that call on withdrawal of Armenian forces from occupied districts of Azerbaijan.[1] However, the Armenian side does not want to comply with the UN resolutions. Poor relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia pressure the latter to change its offensive policy regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, keeping Armenia away from the region’s important oil projects. Azerbaijan, as an owner of the oil resources in South Caucasus region, does not agree with the participation of Armenia in such projects so long as the region remains occupied. This decreases Armenia’s importance in the region, undermining its relations with the West and with Turkey.
Analysis
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Armenia gained independence along with countries such as Azerbaijan and Georgia. Armenia needed a strong ally for security, and thus it reinforced relations with the United States using its lobby. Azerbaijan’s former president, Heydar Aliyev, was successful in showing the importance of the Azerbaijani-US cooperation for both countries. He showed his willingness to collaborate with the US government and helped to increase US-Azerbaijani bilateral relations.[2] Heydar Aliyev was successful in showing the significance of Azerbaijan as a reliable strategic partner, changing the political picture in the region as the US interest in Armenia decreased alongside increasing Azerbaijani-US bilateral relations. While the US-Azerbaijani cooperation in the energy sector and in others sectors were increasing, the Armenian-US relations began to weaken.
The good relations with Turkey could return the Western interest to Armenia because Turkey’s geopolitical position helps the country to create a bridge between the West and the South Caucasus countries. But Armenian-Turkish relations worsened due to the Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani territories. Turkish officials expressed a strong reaction to the Armenian offense against Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, closing the border with Armenia in 1993 to pressure Armenia to withdraw from the occupied lands.[3] We see that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict contributing to the worsening of Armenian Turkish relations.
All three South Caucasus countries of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia signed the Tashkent agreement to enter the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States).[4] Russia used conflicts like Nagorno Karabakh, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia to keep all three countries dependent.[5] Given that Turkish officials supported Azerbaijani side in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Armenia was vulnerable in terms of security because its relations were strained with two of its neighbors. Armenian officials had to guarantee the country’s security, which is why they signed an agreement in 1992 with Russia, allowing the Russian forces to protect the Armenian borders with Turkey. Unlike Armenians, Azerbaijani officials showed their position by refusing to allow the placing Russian military bases in the country.[6] Meanwhile, the Turkish reaction against Armenia broke the attempted bridge between Armenia and the West. While the U.S. was establishing military cooperation with Azerbaijan and Georgia,[7] Russia was placing its forces in Armenia, making it more dependent.
Excepting kinship and close relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey, one of the main sources of Turkish pressure on Armenia was its energy interest in Azerbaijan. In 1993, the Azerbaijani president signed an agreement with Turkey regarding the construction of a pipeline between Baku and Ceyhan. This pipeline was to transport Azerbaijani oil to European markets, giving Turkey the chance to play a key role in the region.[8] Turkey was ready to expend diligent effort to keep the Baku-Ceyhan project alive.[9] This guaranteed the continuing Turkish support for Azerbaijan in Karabakh conflict.
Azerbaijan’s policy not only influenced Turkey, but it also made the US pressure Armenia. The United States, Turkey, and Azerbaijan prepared a proposal for Armenia, entitled “Armenian withdrawal from the occupied territories and recognition of Azerbaijani sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh in exchange for the passage of the Baku Ceyhan pipeline through Armenia.”[10] This proposal was mentioned in 1995 by the former Turkish president, Suleyman Demirel, and in 1997 by Heydar Aliyev. The Armenian side rejected the proposal by responding that the “two issues should not be linked.”[11] The president of Armenia argued that “Armenia should not be bypassed as a transit country”.[12] Azerbaijan responded to the Armenian decision by showing support for the Baku-Tibilisi-Ceyhan course, and Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey signed an agreement in 1999.[13] If Armenia withdraws from the occupied areas, the pipeline would flow through Armenian soil. Armenia would benefit from transit fees and develop its weak economy. Participation in the project would also increase the country’s importance in the region. The differing policies of Armenia and Georgia determined their presence in the BTC project. Georgia’s good relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenia’s poor relations with the same nations created a winner in the case of Georgia and a loser in the case of Armenia in a zero sum game. Poor relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan led Armenia to establish close relations with Russia, making it more dependent.
Armenia’s weak economy not only prevents development of the country, but it also creates demographic problems. According to Forbes’s newest ranking, Armenia has the second worst economy after Madagascar.[14] Such an economy decreases the population of the country because citizens often opt to leave the country in search of better life. This also will put Armenia in a disadvantageous position in the Karabakh conflict. It means that time works in favor of Azerbaijan more than, it does for Armenia. Depopulation of Armenia has increased with the Russian “Compatriots program” since 2009. This program was established to bring Russian speaking people from CIS countries into 24 Russian regions. According to statistics 2,000 Armenian citizens participated in the program in 2010. The majority of Armenian people think that this deepens a demographic problem. It is important to mention that after independence in 1991, 1.1 million Armenians left their motherland to achieve better quality life.[15] According to CIA data for the year of 2011, the Armenian population is 2,967,975.[16] 1.1 million citizens is a tragic loss for the remaining 3 million Armenians. The president of Armenia, Serj Sargisian, sees a solution for decrease emigration in creating better economic opportunities for Armenian people.[17]
Realistically, with the second worst economy in the world and with limited trade and investment opportunities, it is not likely that this plan will be successful. The only solution for Armenia is the liberation of the internationally recognized Azerbaijani lands. Only after that can Armenia benefit from trade with Turkey and Azerbaijan. Armenia can also get a chance to participate in future projects in the region which would be beneficial for its economy and increase its importance in the region.
Unlike Armenia, Azerbaijan experienced fast GDP growth after receiving a tremendous amount of investment to its oil sector. Between 2002 and 2006, per capita GDP growth rate per year increased from 7.3% to 30.6%. The country experienced falling GDP growth between the years of 2006 and 2008 to 15.7 %. However, if we look at GDP growth between the years of 2002 and 2008, we see two times increase.[18] The rate of the poverty declined from 49% to 40% between the years of 2001 and 2004.[19] The year of 2009 sees considerable changes as poverty decreased to 11%,[20] and the inflation rate decreased from 20.8% to 1.5% between the years of 2008 and 2009.[21] We see that oil exports in Azerbaijan help to improve its economy and quality of life for its people.
If Armenia had good relations with Azerbaijan, it would enjoy the benefits of being a transit country for oil exports to the Western markets. This would increase the West’s strategic interest in the country, and Armenia would also benefit from the trade with Turkey. It is important to note that Armenia has borders with the four countries of Georgia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Iran, but borders with two of these neighbors are closed. This leads Armenia to reinforce relations with Russia and Iran and increases Armenia’s dependence on these countries preventing its integration to the West. In order to get access to the major oil projects in the region and benefit from the trade with all of its neighbors, the Armenian government should change its politics regarding Nagorno-Karabakh.[22] Even the former President of Armenia, Ter-Petrosian, believed that Armenia should come to some agreement about the Nagorno-Karabakh issue because the remaining conflict undermines Armenian prosperity and sovereignty. He told the Armenian people that they must choose between Nagorno-Karabakh and development.[23]
The last meeting held in Kazan with the mediation of Russian president Dmitry Medvedev shows that the two sides still cannot come to agreement. An expert on Caucasus and editor of the book “Black Garden”, Thomas De Waal argued after the meeting that disagreements in the Kazan meeting could bring the negotiations to dangerous point. He said that if the two sides do not agree on the base principles accepted in Madrid Summit, war could become inevitable.[24] The modified Madrid Principles are following:
1. The return of occupied territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijani control.
2. A land corridor linking Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh through Lachin district
3. An interim status for Nagorno-Karabakh guaranteeing its security and self-governance
4. Final status of Nagorno-Karabakh to be determined by a legally binding referendum
5. The right of return for all internally displaced persons and refugees
War is an undesirable solution for both sides, but it is Armenia that is more vulnerable. If we compare two countries’ military capacity we can see an increasing gap as oil revenues help Azerbaijan to build up its military. The Azerbaijani president has noted many times in media that they will use military force if necessary to reclaim occupied lands.[25]
Conclusion
The Nagorno Karabakh conflict has had unpleasant results for two countries. Azerbaijan has had 16 percent of its territories occupied and 800,000 of its people displaced. On the other side, Armenia still cannot improve its weak economy. As a result, Armenia is the world’s second worst economy, according to Forbes, and poor economy itself created demographic problems in the country as more and more people are willing to leave every year. Armenia lost its significance in the region and its relations with West and Turkey has been undermined. Its dependence on Russia is increasing as Armenia allows Russian troops to enter their lands for security reasons. Also, Armenia was bypassed as a transit country in the BTC project because officials refused to withdraw from occupied Azerbaijani territories. All facts show that Armenian officials need to change their policy regarding the Nagorno Karabakth conflict if they want prosperity for their nation. If they do not withdraw from occupied lands, which would be the only possible solution, their economy will get even worse and the demographic crisis will deepen. The increased poverty rate and unemployment will cause internal conflict which will undermine stability in the country. Armenian officials and people need to understand that there are two options: prosperity without Karabakh or poverty with Karabakh.
Notes
[1] http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2008/ga10693.doc.htm
[2] A Jaffe and M. Olcott. (2000). The Geopolitics of Caspian Energy. In Y. Kalyuzhnova and D. Lynch, The Euro-AsianWorld. London: Macmillan Distribution Ltd.p84
[3] Joseph R. Masih, and Robert O. Krikorian (1999). Armenia at the crossroads. Amsterdam: Overseas Publishers Association. pp 103-120
[4] Ibid.
[5] Ibid. 106
[6] Ibid. 105
[7]Inessa Baban & Zaur Shiriyev. The U.S. South Caucasus Strategy and Azerbaijan. Turkish Policy Quaterly, Vol 9, No 2 , pp 93-103.
[8] Hale, W. (2000). Turkish Foreign Policy 1774-2000. Oregon : Frank Cass Publishers. p 272
[9] Robert Ebel, Rajan Menon. (2000). Energy and Conflict in Central Asia and Caucasus. Maryland : Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.p 10
[10] Ibid. 106
[11] Ibid.
[12] Joseph R. Masih, and Robert O. Krikorian (1999). Armenia at the crossroads. Amsterdam: Overseas Publishers Association. P 126
[13] Tuncay Bayatli. The Implications of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline Project. Winter 2005. p 12
[14] Forbes Report: The World’s Worst Economies. http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielfisher/2011/07/05/the-worlds-worst-economies/
[16]CIA Factbook.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/am.html
[17]Marianna Grigorian (March 25, 2001).Armenia: Russian Guest Worker Program Highlights Population Drain http://www.eurasianet.org/node/63157
[18] Kalyuzhnova, Yelena. Economics of the Caspian Oil and Gas Wealth. New York : Palgrave Macmillan, 2008.p 11
[19] Kalyuzhnova, Yelena. Economics of the Caspian Oil and Gas Wealth. New York : Palgrave Macmillan, 2008.p 11
[20] CIA Factbook 2010
[21] Ibid.
[22] Joseph R. Masih, and Robert O. Krikorian (1999). Armenia at the crossroads. Amsterdam: Overseas Publishers Association. P 126
[23] Ibid.
[24] The International Institute for Strategic Studies (2001). Strategic Comments: Medvedyev Momentum Falters in Nagorno Karabakh. Vol 17
[25] Cheterian, V. (2008). War and Peace in the Caucasus. Ney York: Colombia University Press.pp 367-379
“independent researcher”? perhaps we should invite Arab “independent researchers” to discuss “Israel nightmare”?
This article is a JOKE.
I need to know how much of Azeri petro dollars are spent so this propaganda can be printed on Foreign Policy Journal
The article is a joke but: Poverty with Karabakh is much more preferable than wealth with no dignity
I am surprised such a biased, stereotype and propaganda information based article makes it into this journal. The author does not use any credible source, any significant comparative statistical data, no field data or secondary data. All assumptions, arguments and conclusions are based on myths and Baku’s propaganda points. No details on how Azerbaijan’s military buildup exceed’s Armenia, no data on how Azerbaijan uses or fails to use the pertodollars for social projects, education and health. No proof that poverty has decreased. Independent news reports and research shows otherwise. No mention of corruption in the two countries. Basing ones conclusions on Armenia’s economic performence on Forbes magazine is slightly talking absurd. There is more credible data on Armenia’s economic performance, such as WB, IMF and that data is nowhere close to FOrbes’ conclusions.
I can only agree with the “Nightmare” part, and yes Armenia’s nightmare is that it lives next to Azerbaijan and Turkey and not Belgium or Costa Rica….
I felt like reading a poorly compiled, uneducated journalist’s article in one of Baku’s local newspapers…
Erik,
If you, in fact, read the article published by Forbes Magazine carefully, you will notice that they described their methodolody of data computation. Specifically, Forbes staff compliled their data based on the IMF stats that were available for the greatest number of countries, averaged over three years including 2011 and 2012 estimates, and weighted GDP growth and inflation highest. The article by Forbes did rely on sources you indicated as reliable and trustworthy.
nice article,thanks!
I think this article fairly represents the current situation around the conflict. Everything is clear: Armenia should liberate occupied Azeri territories, Azerbaijan should give strong guarantees for peaceful existence of Armenians in Nagorno Karabakh. I do not see any reason for some to complain that the author of the article is biased.
What the un-evolved do not recognize that their malicious words embolden and anger Armenians worldwide. If they think we are going to stand by and watch Armenia get run over again they are deeply mistaking! Forbes report and any other negative statistics related to my motherland have mobilized us wherever we may be living presently. And G-d forbid war breaks out many of us will be taking the place of the brave Fedayees of the previous Artsakh war and will strike a decisive blow to anyone attempting to usurp the self-determination of our brothers and sisters!
Now Prince Andrew comes under fire for links to ruler of second corrupt former Soviet state
By Daniel Martin and Daily Mail Reporter
Prince Andrew has developed a ‘close friendship’ with a billionaire dictator accused of torturing protesters, and lobbied the president of another of the world’s ‘most corrupt’ countries, it has emerged.
During eight visits in five years, the Duke of York has forged strong links with Azerbaijan’s president Ilham Aliyev – whose regime is said to have rigged elections and thrown political opponents in jail.
Armenians don’t want to live under dictatorship
Read complete article
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1364372/Prince-Andrews-close-friendship-torture-dictator-Ilham-Aliyev.html
James what do you think of these? this is Armenian source by the way, not any fake english “unknown” source
http://www.a1plus.am/en/politics/2011/06/22/serzh3
10 armenian killed on presidential election day? Is this the way you are compromising security of your people?
this is even more than all the killings in election days in all USSR countries combined!!!
http://news.am/eng/news/15540.html
I’ve done lot’s of research on my grad school year on this particular topic, and I can assure you that this is true. I wish I had a chance to travel to the region one day to get even to the depth of the conflict.
Your analysis is quite shallow at best.
After reading the author’s name and “after Armenia occupied Azerbaijani territories” at the beginning, I stopped reading and scrolled down to the comments section, because I knew this was another worthless Azeri propaganda based on distortion of facts and history – a typical Turk Azeri specialty.
Greater than 80% of Azerbaijan today is historic Armenian territory, meaning Armenia can NEVER liberate enough of her land, not to mention the entire eastern portion of Turkey belongs to Armenia too.
The day will come when this artificial country names Azerbaijan will be dismantled, and Turkey will pay for its genocide of the Armenians, Greeks, and Assyrians. Only then justice will be served, and peace established.
Armenia has NO OBLIGATION to be kind to genocidal primitive minded Turkic states.
ps… as an Armenian Forbes stating Armenia is second worst economy, in my view was a welcomed statement, and I wish we were the worst, not second worst, so that all you shallow fools can have your 5 seconds of euphoria. To us Armenians all these so-called “researchers” prove to us that they in fact haven’t the slightest clue about Armenia and Armenians – and for us that is a good thing.
this is Armenian source by the way, not any fake english “unknown” source
To Arnold and Gordon all your sources are from Armenian news agency’s in Armenia and even armenian parliamentarian asking for president resignation. Its another proof how much more democracy is advanced in Armenia
Can you guys do that in North Korea oh sorry Azerbaijan.
At least in Armenia they can ask for Presidents resignation, protest 24 hour non stop and burn presidents picture and not go jail for it.
AZERBAIJAN: OPPOSITION ACTIVISTS SENTENCED OVER PEACEFUL PROTESTS
http://www.amnesty.org/en/news-and-updates/azerbaijan-opposition-activists-sentenced-over-peaceful-protests-2011-10-03
what a biased article! Well here is a message to the readers, Armenian Nationalism will never surrender and we are going to liberate more lands, even if we have to eat bread and water all day long!!!
This article is a prime example of what official Baku does with its oil money. Spread anti-Armenian propaganda in and out of Azerbaijan, yet fail to curb the rising unemployment and poverty rate in Azerbaijan, while the dictators son buys million dollar mansions in the UAE.
Well, it doesn’t take much expertise to very early in the text realize how subjective and biased this “analysis” is. The alert reader should easily see that Mammedov’s analysis of the conflict is more or less confide to the economic area without almost any references to the issue of international law and passed and ongoing negotiations and stops abruptly around 2004-2005. That Mammedov, e.g. conveniently excludes the Azeri refusal to accept the recent OSCE Minsk proposals in accordance to the Madrid document (which he mentions at the end without any further comments), foremost in regard to the issue of “Final status of Nagorno-Karabakh to be determined by a legally binding referendum”, fearing this will de facto end in NK’s intended independence/reunion with Armenia, shows how shallow this analysis is. Alternatively, Mammedov has asserted that foreign policy is nothing but economics.
Mammedov also misses to elaborate on the reasons behind the war rhetoric of Baku, i.e. Azeri frustration and reluctance to accept recent Minsk proposals which effectively will lead to NK’s permanent separation from Azerbaijan. This in its turn is a good indication for what future NK Armenians will face if they are put under Azeri rule where, at the slightest disagreement, Baku will not hesitate the use threaten to use force. That brings us back to 1988.
The question is however, not about the lacking objectivity of the text, but the lack of editorial judgement; first since the submission has obviously dodged any kind of serious and professional peer review which could point out its shallow and narrow analysis and secondly (and maybe more importantly) the decision to publish this article without considering to publish a debate article in connection to this article.
Nonetheless, I think Mammedov’s conclusion reveals a very important core issue in the conflict: the Azeri side is using it’s oil income to subdue the population of NK and has no aspirations what so ever to truly honor and respect their rights for expression of will and self-determination. The article and especially it’s conclusion about “give up your rights or live in poverty” reflects clearly the Baku sentiments towards NK Armenians and what future awaits the NK population if the region is put under Baku’s rule. For that I thank Mammedov for pointing this out for the readers in an abundantly clear manner.
To azeri-turkos I say: poverty, pain, suffering are things we are used to. The moment I think about Sacred Armenian Land, all pains go away. Our land is Holy, yours is contaminated with 1-oil 2-our wastes (literally, you drink our excrements, hows that?)
Armenia is doing great. with all the oil you have been bathing in your so called fake azerbaijan, poverty levels are much worse than the worse underdevlopped countries. go get a hike
Interesting article and perhaps a wake up call to the region. Im Armenian from Baku, now living in Belgium. Whenever I read about this conflict I get sad and I have only the Armenian leadership to blame. They inflated the tension and provoked a war. Perhaps Ter Petrosiyan was also played by the Soviet KGB, in their coup attempt, I dont know. What I do know is that I mostly agree with your article. The Armenian economic system depents on its Eastern neigbor, Azerbaijan. Georgia is growing because of cooperation with Azerbaijan, I want Armenia to grow aswell rather that the current decline. Many of the Armenians who have posted here, have never been to Armenia or the region. They dont understand the hardshipa in Yerevan. The fertility rate in Armenia is 1.3 – no culture has ever survived that rate. According to UN statistics by 2050 less then a million Armenians will remain in the country. Most Armenians dont want to face these realities. I think the best solution for Nagoro Karabakh is for it to have Self determination within the soveirgnty and terrtorial integrity of Azerbaijan. So some sort of autonomy wih security guarentees and right for Azerbaijanis to return. I hope one day I can return to beautiful Baku aswell.
Beste Erik
Als je toch in azerbeidzjan wil wonnen ,dan hoef je ook niet druk makken om Armenie,of Armeniers.
Een armenier die aan zo een artikel schrijver gelijk geeft ik weet niet wat ik over hem moet denken.
Wij Armeniers zijn gewend aan dit soort olie geldpopaganda.
Erik, you are about as Armenian as George Bush is Black.
Sireli Erik,
I wish you can return to baku at the earliest time. As well as many Armenians would want to go to Adana, Yozgat, MusaLer, Antep, Urfa, Van and much more of our Holy Lands.
You have to blame the azeri-turks for their genocide driven policies, and not the Armenians themselves who have started to “liberate” Armenian terriotry which was raped by dictators. You should very well remember azeri provocations, crimes and pogroms (summgait?) as well as their current anti Armenian propaganda. If you want to live under azeri flag, your choice, go ahead, they are peace loving and freedom loving, nobody is holding your hands.
Don’t worry about Armenia much, we have been for thousands of years, we still are here, and we will remain forever more. Know what you are worth aper jan, hold your head up high, be thankful you are in Belgium, mobilize all your power, energy and money for the service of Sacred Armenia. Your motherland needs you.
What a ridiculous reaction to the article from the so called Armenians sitting all over the world but Armenia itself. As Eric properly mentioned non of you have EVER been in Armenia. Your strive to get every peace of land around comes from your greediness and insatiability that you get with your mother’s blood. I would not wonder if tomorrow you as a nation will pretend for US Capitol in Washington, saying that Washington was Noy’s grandchild. :-) At some point of time you will realize that you have lost the war and Armenia would turn into the ‘ghost’ country as well as Russia. But it will be too late to ask for peace…
Okra, or whatever your name is, I am an Armenian, and I learned greed and insatiablility and murder from you. So keep your “so-called” comments coming, it shows your cowerdice to accept the truth. Why is it that all turks have a collective amnesia?
Orkhan, your clueless remakrks prove you have never been to Armenia, and that’s good :)
Armenians are ONE people, understand that, and get over it.
This article clearly biflects the jingoistic bias of its Azeri author. He fails to account for the rampant corrupt ruling class of the Aliev clan, the Iranian Azeri factor, the Kurdish factor, the extremely advantageous high ground defensible position of Artsakh combined with the Armenians have had 20 years to fortify them and the peak oil of Azerbaijan soon to pass. No the Armenian government needs to be cleansed of the corrupt soviet influences, then a wave of brilliant entrepenurial diasporan Armenians will return and economically leap frog the draconian Azeri apparachiks,just as their oil runs out. The author should try writing for a travel brochure instead.
We won the war & liberated the land & ourselves from slavery.One thing Azeris should understand that this is final & no going back.
The sultan & his cronies similar to the author of this article who are only lining their pockets on the account of the poor Azeris will get the same fate as Mubarak,Kaddafi,Ben Ali & their cronies. Anyway what’s the difference between the toppled hereditory leaders & the sultan?
yet another nonsense article trying to show the power and judgement of Azerbaijan, and Turkey. The under lying factor is, when after the collapse of the soviet union, it’s satelite countries gained independence, why then cannot an autonomous area such as Karapagh gain indipendence from Azerbaijan. The conflict remains frozen, not because of Armenia’s stubborness, but rather, because of many factors in the area, such as the turkification of armenian villages across the Armenian Plateau. what is a people to do? just stand by while it’s culture is irreadicated from the map? They cleaned out Nakhichevan which 100 years ago was 85 percent Armenian! No, my friends, the buck stops with Karapagh. God bless Monte Melkonian, god bless Artsakh, and even if we only have a handfull of families left, we will NEVER give up our ancestoral lands. Chew on that
For the last 23 years we survived catastrophic earthquake,war,no gas/oil/heating/electricity,embargo,poverty & so many other… we survived with our own resources.Oh boy you do not know who the Armenians are Mammadov.Hereditory Aliyev’s fate is known.Very soon he’ll be toppled & that’s why he uses the Artsakh(Karabagh) rhetoric to stay in power.When was it?Oh yes few weeks back an Azeri drone was shot down with a hunting gun…
Guys, (“so-called Armenians” as one half-mind put it in one of the comments) cool down.
The only thing to fret about is that foreign policy journal is for sale – a fact we sadly know is true about most of periodic media struggling to survive.
Otherwise – Artsakh is as prosperous as it has never been before – I’ve seen it personally. And I admit – I’ve never been to Azerbaijan, but judging from Freedom House, Transparency International and UNDP reports – it’s a corrupt, totalitarian regime led by eternal clan and fed with oil money – does the picture sound familiar? Hello, Arab spring!
There are certain valid points in the article, but some wrong ones such as Armenia being the 2nd worst economy though the source is Forbes.
There were no mention of the Armenian refugees, or the true reason of the conflict between Armenian and Turkey.
However it is time for both countries to work out their differences.
The author basically wants to tell this to Armenians. Look at the last sentence “prosperity without Karabakh or poverty with Karabakh.”
We choose prosperity with Karabakh.
Of course… after “prosperity without Karabakh or poverty with Karabakh.” will come ““prosperity without Zangezur or poverty with Zangezur.” etc. Does he really think Armenians would fall for this?! These “independent Azeri analysts” live in some dreamworld…
You have to look at the source; Galib Mammadov is of Muslim/Turkish orientation; a thing like this could never be taken serious for the word objectivity will never be in his vocabulary; I guess the massacres of unarmed Armenians in Baku at the hands of Azeri/Turkish cannibals is Mammadov’s idea of exemplary domestic policy…But why waist my breath with a Mammadov? No amount of oil and blackmail will help the fortunes of race born in the harems…
Do you have any facts of cannibalism in Baku against armenians? If yes please provide facts
Thanks
Yeah millions of unmarked Armenian graves from Istanbul to Baku, each with a horror story of Turkish/
Azeri cannibalism
It is rather strange to see such a primitive article in this magazine.First of all neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan were countries in 1988. They were part of Soviet Union and the borders within Sovient Union were administrative ones.
Four resolutions of UN Security Council said nothing about Armenia. They mentioned Armenians of Nagorno Karabakh.Author of the article “forgot”to mention that any time Azerbaijan lost territories because they violated ceasfire. Their” successfull leader” Heydar Aliev was one of corrupted leader of Soviet Union.
He joined KGB(then NKVD)during World War II when the youngsters of his age fought nazis. He rose through the ranks and became KGB general. I wonder how many people have been rotten in Siberia because of his activities. Then he became a member of Politbyruo. Soviet leader Brezhnev called him “my son”
The author likes to talk about integrity of borders.
What borders? Those borders were established by communists.
And finally I would recommend editors of the magazine too be more selective.
I think you shouldn’t feed people with writings like that.That’s why people are so ignorant and don’t know what actually is going aroung the world. Unless you have vested interest in publishing articles like that.
Y
Very nice article, but you should mention that Armenia is not a decision maker in this conflict. There are only two real players such as Azerbaijan and Russia.
The author should also mention about Nabucco gas pipeline and Kars-Akhalkalaki-Tbilisi-Baku railway. Nabucco aims to decrease Europe’s dependence from Russia. Kars-Akhalkalaki-Tbilisi-Baku railway, will connect London-Beijing. These project are more important than BTC. As a result of Armenian(actually Russian poppet government) offensive politics against Azerbaijan, these important project bypass Armenia which decreases its importance in the region. The only role of Armenia in the region is being the Russian poppet. This role helps Russia to defend Russian interest in the region.
By the way, you did a great job. This article has a very clear argument with strong supporting points. Looking forward for the next articles.
C’mon… All this nice fairy tales about Nabucco and its impact on Europe energy security! Do you know that EU-27 annually consumes around 637bln cm of natural gas, while the extreme capacity of Nabucco will be 31bln cm, which, in turn, is not certain where to grasp from, as the total annual drilling of natural gas in ALL Azerbaijani shores is 35bln cm, including 9.5bln cm (and rising) of domestic consumption. Even if realized, Nabucco will provide only 31bln out of 637bln cm of EU-27 needs…. You calculate the real percentage and importance of this project!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nabucco_pipeline
Shame on foreign policy journal for publishing this poorly written garbage.
Whats the price to publish such a propaganda contribution? Isnt it ridiculous for FPJ to run this kind of biased and, to say the least, utterly unprofessional articles?
Congrats, Qarib – you will be rewarded by your bloody dictator for this silly endeavour:)
Great article! Good job FPJ!
very nice article depicting the true information about how azerbaijan and armenia are doing. i have been to both countries and can tell with no hesitation that azerbaijan is more developed compared to armenia. just as an example, when you walk in the streets of baku and yerevan, there is a huge difference since azeri people drive the most expensive cars while armenians are still stuck to basic russian ones
omg armenians who commented to this article: great job guys, you are even better than the Japanese writer saikaku who exaggerates a lot. are you guys in your dreams? hey wake UP! if if did not visit armenia just 5 weeks ago, i would believe you guys so bad :)i stayed 8 days in armenia and visited 5 cities and stayed in azerbaijan for 6 days and visited 4 cities. Mr Mammadov, please do not compare azerbaijan’s economy to armenia’s, because that is not fair. people in armenia live in poverty and education sucks there. on the other hand, i loved baku, very nice people, amazing places, fabulous projects and many more. comparing yerevan and baku is same to comparing a lada car and ferrari. i am this serious. but guys (armenians), i really appreciate your sense of humor, because i know you are joking but life is not all about jokes
You sound like a person who came out of the closet with his mama’s clothes…
Armenia has produced more scientists, engineers, and architects in one hour than the sum total of the 700 cursed years since your kind arrived from central Mongolia…
Anastas Mikoyan, an Armenian, was ordered by Stalin to build a jet fighter compatible to the West in one year, and he did the MIGs. Your kind can only build Turkish Harems…to subjugate foreign people; that I believe is the most coveted curriculum in the Baku and Ankara Universities…
Vicente, and by staying in Armenia for 8 days and in Azarbaidjan for 6 day how did you succeed to estimate education system? Why not to tell us that you are an Azeri or a Turk and just made the whole thing up?
If Azerbaijan were as powerful as it claims, it would have taken back Karabagh/Artsakh long ago.
The truth is that there is little will or desire within the Azeri populace to take back a land in which it was never, ever the majority or anything close to it. Stalin gave Artsakh to Azerbaijan. That is the only way that Artsakh wound up under Azeri (mis)rule.
As for the author’s promise about Armenia’s being an oil and gas transit route, please, Azerbaijan: keep your oil and gas. We don’t need or want it.
If Azerbaijan dares to attack Artsakh again, Azerbaijan will pay a high price, and this time Armenians will go all the way to Baku.
we should have gone all the way to baku the first time.
it so funny, hey guys your are living in dream :))
800,000 Azeries were displaced? Why the author as always forget to mention about 300.000-500.000 displaced Armenians? Probably they think that those displaced Armenians are less of importance as compared to Azeries and not worth mentioning. Very biased article. Mr. Mammadov please do a better research before writing an article about Karabakh next time.
The article discusses strong facts hardly arguable with sober mind, however it does not touch some other not less important aspects of this:
First: Azeri nazi-like anti-armenian hatred government propaganda: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramil_Safarov.
Second: 200 000 of Armenian population that fled Azerbidghan during pogroms at the start of this conflict.
Third: Amount of attrocities commited against Armenian population during past 100 years: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_massacres_in_Azerbaijan
Forth: Loss of Armenian identity in its native habitat/land due to aggressive and nationalistic and lots of times barbaric Turkchic expansion: http://www.icomos.org/risk/world_report/2006-2007/pdf/H@R_2006-2007_09_National_Report_Azerbaijan.pdf
As well the author fails to mention that Karabakh is historically Armenian ..! Not Azeri. It was only placed under Azeri boarders during the soviet era. The Armenian hiatory of Karabakh goes back thousands of years. When the Soviet Union broke down as usual Karabakh was overwhelmingly Armenian ethnically.
It would be exactly like US forces going into a Navajo reservation trying to kill all the people and kick them out.. because perhaps there was federal government instability and no one was looking. What they did not expect is that the Armenians would fight back and win there land back.
It’s important to remember that Azeri and Turkish ( related languages ) are both foreign to the area. Both have their roots in the far east and are Asiatic languages .. not Mid-Eastern / Indo- European.
The Azeri’s keep crying about the Khojaly Massacres that the Azeri’s suffered during the Karabakh conflict .. But it’s important to remember that Islamic / Turkic speaking peoples ( Azeri’s and Turks ) and been killing the indigenous Christians for 100s of years. The word “Genocide” it self was created by scholars studying the Killing of Indigenous Armenians by Turkic peoples in 1915. 1.5 million Armenians where murdered in years around 1915 alone.
If you want to see how many Armenians have been murdered in Azerbaijan look at this Wiki link. ” 60,000 Armenians murdered in Azerbaijan ”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_massacres_in_Azerbaijan
60,000 Armenians have been murdered in Azerbaijan, and much of that land was historically Armenian. Armenia is one of the only nations still in existence that is mentioned in the bible and in Mesopotamian cuneiform: the oldest known written language.
The Armenia is the First Christian Nation in the world and they are an Indigenous people of that part of the world. They deserve a home land just like the Jews.
The USA ratified Wilsonian Armenia after the Armenian Genocide, but Turkey never gave over the land.. Which is in Violation of these agreements.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilsonian_Armenia
This whole region of eastern Turkey is Meant to be part of Armenia by law .. and it is Historically Armenia!
The same this is going on in Azerbaijan.. In the end Islamic States want to kill Christians.. Armenian Christians they hate the most as they are the Indigenous of Eastern Turkey and much of the Caucasus. The Assyrians also have been victims of this hatred.
The Armenians are one of the only two tribes ( Jews and Armenians ) represented by a quarter of the Ancient walled city of Jerusalem. They are a sacred people as the 1st Christian Nation on the Earth and Representing the people of Noah and the Armenian quarter of Jerusalem.
Stop trying to kill all Christians in the Mid-East where Christianity comes from: 700 years before Islam.