Burmese Intellect in Exile

Will Democracy ever come to Burma?

“In Burma, the uprising could happen any time, and form anywhere.  All of the people are angry. Now, we are afraid. But like a volcano, it could explode at any time.” — Burmese intellect in exile.

I recently had the opportunity to interviewing a Burmese intellectual in self-imposed exile, working for exile media. Although far away from home, he keeps a constant eye on his country, hoping some day, to return to a democratic Burma.

The interview began with me asking the exile to fill me in about the Burma situation, as it had been a few years since I had been reporting on it. I knew that there were a lot of new factions fighting in the war, or some old factions, who had stopped, but had recently returned to active hostilities.

When I was reporting in 2007 and 2008, the DKBA (Democratic Karen Buddhist Army) had a cease fire with the Burmese government (SPDC) forces.

The exile explained: During the cease fire, the DKBA kept their arms and uniforms, but could run businesses under the SPDC. For example, traders would buy second-hand cars in Thailand, and send them to Burma (without paying government import taxes). The DKBA would protect the car as it passes through their area, and then collect tax for the shipment.

Before the election, the regime wanted them to join the Burmese Border Guard Force (BGF). They didn’t want to do that, because BGF is just a branch of SPDC. They would have to change their uniforms and everything. And if they joined BGF they would come under Burmese control. The highest that a Karen officer could be was a major. The Lt. Colonel or Colonel would be assigned by the military regime.

So, they didn’t all accept that. A DKBA officer, Colonel Saw La Pwe (called Bo Moustache) formed a separate, splinter group. They refused the border guard jobs and are now fighting against SPDC. Other groups joined the BGF.

Other groups began their conflict again on the first day of the elections, partly because they didn’t accept the BGF, and also because Aung San Suu Kyi hadn’t been released yet at that point.

Every cease fire group was offered BGF. If they refuse, then they have to start fighting again, against SPDC. Many groups returned to the jungle, to a state of armed conflict. Some of the other groups accepted it.

Some groups refused, like New Mon State Army. They claimed overnight to have raised 10,000 troops. Basically, it was their cease-fire army that moved from cease-fire to actively fighting.

There are three kinds of ethnic groups: cease-fire, actively fighting, or political wing.

For example, SSA South has been in a constant state of war with SPDC, but the SSA North was in a state of cease fire with the SPDC. Now the SPDC has surrounded the area of the SSA North, restricting their movement and efficacy. But the SSA North haven’t officially started fighting back yet.

Not all of the ethnics are able to raise an army.

I heard from some Mon leaders that it has been ten years since they last fought. When the proposition came on the table to fight again, they said, “No, I live on the border. I have a family. I have a business.” They weren’t ready to go back into the jungle again.

All of the fighting and cease-fire and movement is on the Thai side of Burma. But for the Chin and Arakan, ethnic groups on the Indian and Bangladesh borders, they have no strength. Their armies are very small. They can’t get supplies. There are almost no aid groups on that side. They are nearly powerless to fight.

According to an aid worker, the Burmese government asked the Indian government to kick out the aid groups, helping the Chin and Arakan. And the Indian government has complied.

Antonio: Historically, although most of Burma’s inhabitants seem to hate their government, the armed resistance groups, have been composed of ethnic minorities, not Burmans.

Exile: There doesn’t seem to be an armed Burmese group, but there have been conflicts inside of the army. Than Schwe ousted one senior general. He ordered many generals to change to be civilians and then accept government positions like ministers in the government. And this left only a handful of powerful generals in the army. Like the general everyone said he would be, Than Schwe’s successor or Commander of the joint chiefs of staff. As of right now, Than Schwe holds every position, head of government, as well as head of armed forces.

We all know government ministers have no power, so the general asked Than Shwe to let him back to the army. Then Than Shwe placed him under house arrest.

Antonio: In 2007, it looked like dissent inside of the military was reaching such a level that many people hoped their might be coup. Now, I don’t seem to hear that as often.

Exile: Before, it seemed there was some movement inside of the army. But then there was a crackdown, and even this hope, of the army crumbling, is waning. But in the past, low level soldiers often ran away. Now, we hear stories about high ranking officers running away. But they are afraid to trust Thai officials.

Antonio: Even if military men run away from the army, it may be difficult for them to join the rebels and fight. The SSA doesn’t usually accept Burmans, even if they hate the SPDC and ask to join up and fight. But the Karen (KNLA) have been known to either accept Burmans or help them get into a refugee camp.

Did you vote in the elections?

Exile: No, the embassy didn’t offer us that opportunity. They only informed government workers that they could vote, but not civilian Burmese. But even if they had offered, I didn’t want to vote in their election.

I remember the 2008 constitution vote, back in my village. In every village, there is a representative who represents ten homes. Then there is the leader of the village. When they go to vote, the local leader just voted for any old people who couldn’t vote or Burmese who were working or studying abroad. He never asked how we wanted to vote. He voted for the SPDC in our names. I assume the embassy did the same thing.

The election was a sham. By our law, they have to count the votes twice. The first time they counted, the democratic party won. The government was angry. “Count again,” they said. Suddenly they found more votes, counted again, and the democratic group lost. They said that voter turn out was 97%, but I don’t believe it. For example, army and government staff have no right to vote. In the army, only their leader, as representative, votes on their behalf. So, the colonel has 900 votes, and he votes for the SPDC. At the government office, the vote paper is on the desk of the director. You have to mark the paper in front of him, no privacy. So, there is no chance to vote how you want. And there are no outside observers.

They had a meeting of parliament. It only lasted 15 minutes, and they read out the list of ministry appointments. The record was eight minutes. There was no vote and no complaint. Even the chairman of parliament didn’t know what he was to do that day, till he opened the envelope they sent to him, to tell him. Every parliament member was silent. They didn’t say anything. The chairman even said “don’t make argument. This will just waist time.” Okay. Now we have a parliament, but what kind of parliament? What will they do for us?

They just want to legitimize, to appear to have democracy.

Yes, we had some change, we had a campaign. But the important step of a democracy is the vote. They skipped that step. At the earliest stages of the election, even we exile media had some hope. One group separated from National League for Democracy (NLD) and ran separately. But they disappointed later.

SPDC was allowed to do whatever they wanted in the campaign. But all other parties had to apply for a permit to speak. In the application they had to give a list of exactly what they would say, who would speak, how long they would speak, and who would attend.

The NLD is now defunct. The government forced them to eject Aung San Suu Kyi because she has been convicted under Burmese law. Criminals cannot be party members. Next, the government wanted to dissolve the NLD. NLD submitted three appeals to the government, but they were rejected and ordered to dissolve. Because they are not recognized as a party now, they can’t do much, because they could be called terrorists, or be charged with plotting to overthrow the government. This is very dangerous for Aung San Suu Kyi now.

Antonio: Why did SPDC release Aung San Suu Kyi?

Exile: They did everything they wanted. Everything is under control. What happened after they released her? Yes, she has some public support. She made a speech, but after release…one little speech. In the current atmosphere, what can she do? Everything is gone already: the constitution, the election, even the existence of the NLD (National League for Democracy). Everyone wanted to hear what she had to say about sanctions and about what her next political step would be. In my opinion, she can do nothing now. She told us to resist peacefully.

Many of us believe we must fight. But the army has the guns. We have no guns. But she still says “peacefully.” She also supports the sanctions. So the military regime is very angry. Now they attack her regularly with their newspaper. But I think if they arrest her again, her political activity will be dead. She is now already 65 years old. If they put her in house arrest for five or ten years again…

The situation is very dangerous for her. Now, every one of her activities could be called political. And if she engages in political activity, she is breaking the law.

She has told the people to start social, political networks. How can we do that? There is no Facebook, and limited internet in Burma. And we cannot trust anyone. How can we do it? Maybe she has more clear ideas, but she can’t speak out right now. Every move, every word could be the cause of her arrest. So, there is only a little room for her to move. For example, she is not allowed to travel around Burma. If she does, they will say she is campaigning.

Years ago, she was attacked by government forces and many of her followers were killed.

“On 9 November, 1996, the motorcade that she was traveling in with other National League for Democracy leaders Tin Oo and U Kyi Maung, was attacked in Rangoon. About 200 men swooped on the motorcade, wielding metal chains, metal batons, stones and other weapons. The car that Aung San Suu Kyi was in had its rear window smashed, and the car with Tin Oo and U Kyi Maung had its rear window and two backdoor windows shattered. It is believed the offenders were members of the Union Solidarity Development Association (USDA) who were allegedly paid 500 kyats (USD $5) each to participate. The NLD lodged an official complaint with the police, and according to reports the government launched an investigation, but no action was taken.” — Amnesty International

If she does anything, they can call it a destabilizing activity.

Many of the youth are disappointed in her. They say, “We want to fight,” but she tells us to act peacefully.

The people-power revolutions in Islamic countries of the last several weeks have been an inspiration to people living under dictatorships around the world.

Than Schwe and his people are afraid of this. They have blocked the coverage in Burma. The journalists are told not to write about it. Some Burmese youth started a campaign on Facebook telling their friends to do the same.

Yes, I am sure to say this Middle East uprising will have an impact on Burmese people. But you can’t expect that we will have a revolution like that in Burma. Every revolution needs a spark.

In Burma, if we want to make a business we have to have a close relationship with a general. Last month one banker in Burma had a close relationship with a general. People heard that there was a problem with the currency, and people ran to the bank to withdraw all of their money.

Many of the generals were forced to become civilians, but they don’t want that. In Burma, the uniform is power and money. If you have a uniform, you have soldiers. You have power. You can give orders. They weren’t satisfied with being in civilian government leaders. They feel safer in the army. They have soldiers and guns and powers. But as government they are not sure of their future. So there is a conflict among the top generals.

It could happen from any point and there could be a revolution. Or, if not, we will go along in this situation for ever.

In the Middle East they are having a domino effect; in Asia not. It is difficult for this to happen. Look at the end of communism across Europe. But not here in Asia. I think it is because of different social situations and religions. Also, in Europe they are mostly the same religion and ethnicity. But here, we are all different.

Laos, Burma, Cambodia… Can you say this is democracy?

They have different interests.

Now we have a new government, but only on paper. They changed the faces but not the policies. They moved from a military regime to civilian, but we still have hope. Maybe there will be an uprising. We have hope. On the surface, Burma looks stable, but behind the scenes every single camp has problems among army, academics, civilians, government, and so on. So, in Burma the uprising could happen any time, and form anywhere.  All of the people are angry. Now, we are afraid. But like a volcano, it could explode at any time. Every situation leads to that revolt.

In the 2007 revolution, we had no leader; Aung San Suu Kyi was under house arrest. Maybe if she was free, she could have done something. I don’t think the revolt will come first from the army. Maybe it will start from the people, if the commodities get too expensive or the banking system collapses.

Right now, Than Schwe has the power. He is the state strongman. So that means, maybe someone will kill him, or he dies… Maybe another general will take charge. Or, if he dies, maybe there will be fighting inside of the army.

“We still have hope. Maybe there will be an uprising. We have hope.”

Antonio Graceffo is self-funded and needs donation to continue his writing and video work. To support the project you can donate through the paypal link on his website, www.speakingadventure.com or by direct transfer into his bank account.