The outcome of Iran’s June 12 presidential election, which secured incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s position for another 4-year term, stirred up widespread controversy around the world and drew numerous condemnations, from German Chancellor Angela Merkel to the Muslim Canadian Congress.
Yet there are several progressive analysts and former state officials in the E.U. and U.S. who have dared to jeopardize their public standing by explicitly taking the side of the Iranian government, and denouncing foreign intervention in Iran’s internal affairs and covert efforts to topple the Islamic Republic establishment.
Paul Craig Roberts is among the prominent progressive pundits who have taken such a stand. An economist who served under President Ronald Reagan as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, Roberts has been honored with the title of the “Father of Reaganomics”.
Roberts has long been absent from the pages of the Washington Post, the New York Times, and the other mainstream corporate media, preferring instead to be an independent voice of political non-alignment.
These days, you find him writing for Counterpunch.org, VDare.com, LewRockwell.com, and American Free Press, among others, and though his articles might not find much of a place in the mainstream media, his work is widely known and circulated worldwide.
“The charge that the Iranian election was stolen is propagandistic,” he told me in an exclusive interview for Foreign Policy Journal. “Iran is under attack because it is one of two remaining independent countries in the region. If Iran also falls under U.S. hegemony, it is the end of Syria’s independence and of Hamas and Hezbollah.”
In my extensive discussion with Paul Craig Roberts, he insisted that there is “hard evidence” of U.S. efforts to carry on a color revolution in Iran.
Your recent articles on the post-election unrest have been frequently translated and widely circulated in the Persian-language media outlets in Iran.
Based on your evidence, conservative pundits claimed that Mir-Hossein Mousavi was a close associate of the American initiatives and the democratization institutes, particularly the National Endowment for Democracy, raising the funds of his campaign through their financial assistance. Have you been informed of any hard proof for this possible linkage, or is this only suspicion or possibility?
The question my several columns addressed is U.S. participation in the protests following the recent Iranian election. There is hard evidence that the U.S. government had a hand in the protests.
For example, neoconservative Kenneth Timmerman heads the Foundation for Democracy, which describes itself as “a private, non-profit organization established in 1995 with grants from the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) to promote democracy and internationally-recognized standards of human rights in Iran.” From various NED promoted “color revolutions”, as in Georgia and Ukraine, we know what that means.
Writing on June 11 prior to the Iranian election, Timmerman reported, “there’s talk of a green revolution in Tehran.” In other words, something had been prepared prior to the vote, which raises flags about the spontaneity of the protests. Timmerman continued: “The National Endowment for Democracy has spent millions of dollars during the past decade promoting ‘color’ revolutions in places such as Ukraine and Serbia, training political workers in modern communications and organizational techniques. Some of that money appears to have made it into the hands of pro-Mousavi groups, who have ties to non-governmental organizations outside Iran that the National Endowment for Democracy funds.”
There are also numerous reports, such as the ones cited in my columns, that President George W. Bush signed an order in May 2007 for the CIA to mount a covert “black” propaganda and disinformation operation to destabilize and eventually topple the Iranian political regime. There are also a number of published reports that the U.S. government funds terrorist organizations within Iran that carry out assassinations and bombings. I have no inside information as to how the destabilization plan was implemented or whether Mousavi had any direct links to the PSYOPS activities.
Timmerman, who should know as he is involved in the business, says NED money intended to promote a “color revolution” reached pro-Mousavi groups. Under America’s terrorism laws, this would make Mousavi guilty, and then there is the duck test. If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, the chances are high that it is a duck. Mousavi declared his victory while people were still voting, according to some accounts, or before the votes were counted, according to other accounts. The purpose of such a premature announcement is to produce an uproar in the event of a different outcome. Other obvious elements of orchestration are apparent. They suggest that groundwork was laid for protests and that the protests were not entirely spontaneous.
According to a Washington Post report in 2007, then-President Bush was granted the authorization to spend some $400 million for activities ranging from espionage on Iran’s nuclear program to “supporting rebel groups opposed to the country’s ruling clerics”. While Mir-Hossein Mousavi had been an Iranian governmental insider, having served 8 year as a prime minister with close ties to some of the high-ranking clerics, could it be possible that his fans or his campaign associates might be ranked among the rebels who seek to topple the government?
This question could only be answered by those involved in the destabilization plan. My opinion, based on what I understand at this time, is that there are Iranian youth, especially in Tehran, who are secularized and westernized and who find the Islamic moral code oppressive. I don’t know where these youth got the idea that Mousavi, “the Butcher of Beirut”, would lift the burden of this code from their personal lives; nevertheless, it appears that the backbone of the protests in terms of numbers in the streets was the group of disaffected youths.
As for Mousavi and his powerful allies, such as Rafsanjani and Montazeri, I do not believe that their intention is to topple the government. These are ambitious and frustrated men who had lost out and wish to get back in the game. Making an issue of the elections was a way to do that.
Moreover, these are men accused of corruption by Ahmadinejad. They would not want an uncontested government in place that might act against them on corruption charges. It is certainly possible that the CIA and the NED-funded-Iranians knew enough of the splits, ambitions, and animosities among the ruling class to exploit them. I don’t think there was a danger that the protests would topple the government. However, the protests have served the U.S. purpose of further discrediting and isolating the Iranian government, setting up Iran for more pressure or more sanctions or even a military attack.
Mr. Roberts appears to be very uneducated when it comes to Iran. He thinks that Iranians came to streets to fight against Islamic rules. That is not true. The main reason people showed up is because of the significant fraud in the election. I understand that not knowing the language (Farsi) and the culture make it difficult for non-Iranians to understand the situation. Mr. Roberts seems to have the same issues. He gives Ahmadinejad supporters a reason to justify the use of violence against people . They should appreciate it.
Farid, Roberts stated reason for the protests is not mutually exclusive from yours. Mr. Roberts said, “there are Iranian youth, especially in Tehran, who are secularized and westernized and who find the Islamic moral code oppressive”. They support Mousavi because they see him as more secular and westernized. They protest because they support Mousavi. Further, the suggestion that it’s “difficult for non-Iranians to understand” that the charges of fraud were a cause of the protests is ridiculous. It would be difficult for any person who ever turned on the news or picked up a newspaper not to understand that. Finally, conclusive evidence of electoral fraud has yet to be produced.
As an Iranian youth living inside Iran; I believe that what Mr. Ahmadi nejad said about Israel and its removal from globe, is the exact meaning of what he said in his interview and published by medias worldwide. And the way that Mr. Roberts supported him – that he did not actually mean it – is a fact which shows Mr. Roberts caprice with him.
If there were no fraud in the recent election why Iranian leaders – such as Ayatollah Khamenei – did not accept to repeat it in order to calm down people both inside and outside of Iran?!
Why they ended it up by killing innocent people which Mr. Roberts call them the group of disaffected youths? And I consider it very abusive because I saw even very old people in Iran streets during these protest by myself and of course world did so in pictures too.
I believe Mr. Roberts is a puppet of Islamic radicals in Iran … Not considering what they did to us – to Iranian people- needs a man with both no hart and no eye …
I am so sorry for him and the ones who thinks as he does.
Mr. Roberts is correct to say that Mr. Ahmadinejad never said he wants to “wipe Israel off the map”. This is pure propaganda. 1) This is an inaccurate translation and would more properly read something like “removed from the pages of history”. 2) He was quoting Khomeini. 3) The context of the remark was the need to remove cruel and oppressive regimes from power. Ahamdinejad’s other two examples, besides Israel, were Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and Shah Pahlavi’s Iran.
As for your question, I would start with the opposite assumption. If there was no fraud, why would Khameini agree to a new election? The very suggestion is absurd, and such a decision would be inequitable.
Finally, the fact that the protests resulted in a violent crackdown, as condemnable as it is, isn’t evidence that there was electoral fraud. Do you know of any actual evidence for your claim, or are these questions representative of the assumptions upon which you base it?
I think that the idea behind these articles is just feeding the Ahmadinejad’s propagenda in order to deviated Iranians’ democratic movement.
I think there are sufficent documents to prove that there has been a widespread fraud in the recent election. The movement of Iranian people cannot be associated with westerners, Of course some people of Iran are secular and westernized, That’s true. But I have to remind Mr. Roberts that many of Mousavi supporters does never support western liberal democracy. The majority of the people of Iran believe in an Islamic democratic society and not a western style. This is what people of Iran are pursuing , this cannot be linked to west. We, Iranian youth, never enjoy to have democratic society of west because we are committed to our religious thoughts and beliefs which I think makes it more unbelievable that people of Iran are struggling to create a color revolution.
Mr Mousavi as a man who was closest person to Ayatollah Khomeini will never come along with the idea which supported revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia.
The scenario which radical Ahmadinejad supporters are following is incomplete. Please let me know if Mousavi was supported by NED then why Guardian Counsil should qualify him? It is redicilous to say that they were not known of what Mousavi is gonna to do?
prior to 12th June elections, many of IRG (revolutionary guards) chiefs accused Mousavi of struggling to create Green revolution for several times,
So if they knew about it why they qualified him, According to law they could disqualify him before elections so if they knew about this why they did not disqualify him…
So I would remind you an important point thay we , in Iran , are not pursuing western democray, Georgian democray or any other country, we are pursuing democracy in the frame of Islam and not west.
Therefore I will warn you and Ahmadinejad radical supporters to NOT to try to link Iranian people movement to anyother western resources, Democracy and freedom is not specially for western societies. Democracy is a global need for any sociey.
Our democratic movement cannot be attached to West.
You, supporters of Ahmadinejad which may have been fueled by his mafia in ourside, are living outside Iran and will never be informed ot what are the demands of Iranian men and women to have a Islamic democratic society. Do not undermine our movements and do NOT try to spread these absurd nonsenses.
You’re welcome to share this evidence of electoral fraud you refer to.
It’s funny you write “we, In Iran” when you’re in the United States.
To Jeremy R. Hammond
You are wrong because: 1. Ahmadinejad meant annihilation (Persian: nabudi) of Israel (of course without mass public support) and not simply “wipe it out of pages of history” 2. He was not quoting Khomeini but repeating a slogan that ayatollah had used before. 3. “The context of the remark was the need to remove cruel and oppressive regimes from power”?! but it is better to know that Iranian monarch was Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi and not “Shah Pahlavi” :)
I was shocked by seeing you to such a high degree unaware of Iranian issues. I don’t know how much of 280 billion dollars of our oil revenues have been spent on propaganda. But it is better for you to study more our country to not look like simpletons.
I see Paul Roberts cooperative hand in weaving conspiracy theory of foreign meddling and producing pretext for Iranian regime’s bloody suppression. Shame on him.
1. Ahmadinejad made no threat against Israel. 2. Yes, he was quoting Khomeini. 3. The context of his remark was the need to remove cruel and oppressive regimes from power (Seriously? You’re making an issue that I referred to him by his title and family name rather than his full name? And using that as the basis for suggesting I’m ignorant? You’re going to have to do better than that).
There are perfectly good reasons to believe the U.S. is meddling, and a proven history of it in recent times.
None of the people who are arguing against this article can provide any facts for their claim that the election was fraudulent. On the other hand the evidence presented such as Timmerman’s claim of a green revolution one day before the election clearly is a fact that shows involvement of foreign hands in that country.
As for the comments that Ahmadinejad made about Israel, we have to understand that people who voted for him did so because it was a slap in the face of Israel. So by making those comments he appealed to his supporters as well as to those in the Arab world.
I just repeat what Dr. Mosadeq once said :
” I wish we had no oil ”
there is lots of things to say but I rather not to say anything.
Have fun with my country’s oil and my peoples money Mr. Roberts and other fellows.
Thats what all saying the whoile Soft revolution was prepared by CIA. we have learned from the past the american governemnt is the most evil orgenized on earth, we are ready for usa now, come to war baby
I don’t have any doubt that one day, and I hope very soon, we will show the connections between paid journalists such as Paul Roberts and Jeremy Hammond and the Iranian Shari’atmadari intelligence and propagandist organization. Our nation’s oil-money now is in your pockets. And that is the reason why you fear a modern and democratic Iran.
“I don’t have any doubt that one day, and I hope very soon, we will show the connections between paid journalists such as Paul Roberts and Jeremy Hammond and the Iranian Shari’atmadari intelligence and propagandist organization.”
Now that’s the most bizarre conspiracy theory I’ve heard in ages. I guess it’s easier for Sohrab to believe little ol’ me is an Iranian intelligence agent than that the CIA took the opportunity to foment unrest against the regime during the election. I’ll let intelligent readers decide which is more plausible.
And I’m all for a modern and democratic Iran, Sohrab.
Yes. For sure there are clear sign of USA nationals meddling in Iran. Paul Roberts article was translated in Persian and published in Keyhan Newspaper (one branch of the same organization Sohrab mentioned) and widely publicized by Iranian governmental mass media. And it is now one of the main instruments to suppress our peaceful innocent nation’s movement. You are meddling. It is clear. You are cooperating with mass media branch of this coup.
Mr Roberts! take your bloody hands out of our country.
That is interesting how intolerant some of the Iranian people who post comment on this page are. So let me get this right : any body who thinks foreign hands are involved in the recent unrest in Iran is on Ahmadinejad’s pay roll right?
We all know being agent of a state that sponsors Hamas and Hezbollah is illegal in the U.S so if any of you have evidence that Paul Roberts or Jeremy are on the payroll of Iran they should report them to Home Land Security or SHUT UP.
bonita costa, there have also been a number of people claiming to be Iranians in Iran who are posting to the comments from IP addresses in the U.S. So you can add dishonesty to the intolerance of some.
I agree with Dr. roberts. Unfortunately USA do many problems for Iran. But Iran goes forward strongly .
When in 1953 USA toppled Dr. Mosaddeq’s democratic government, it blocked Iranian democratic movement for decades. In 1979 when Iranian people decided to change their destiny, USA again meddled and diverted a movement that was libertarian in its essence. And now when a democratic movement is taking place, you, by playing another trick, try to hinder this movement. Ok. If you have any hard evidence, please disclose it. What have you said up to now, all have been accusations. By accusing, you simply repeat what USA has done before. (توقع ندارید که تصور کنیم کاسة داغ تر از آش تشریف دارید)
The problem is not simply as you pretend. “Iranian youth, especially in Tehran, who are secularized and westernized and who find the Islamic moral code oppressive.” As far as relates to Islamic aspects, it is a misuse of power in the name of Islam. There is much more that you ignored.
By supporting fundamentalists in Afghanistan, USA became its ultimate victim. You want disclose connections? Ok. Disclose secret connections between USA and Middle Eastern non-democratic regimes such as Saudis. What is between Wahhabis and USA? What sort of benefit you get by mobilizing and supporting armed groups in Middle East? What sort of benefit you get by helping to suppress Iranian people’s movement?
Mr. Roberts! Countries can be independent in another way. People will defend their independence. They will gain their rights by a democratic movement.
Finally, if I suppose that the motive of your analysis is essentially irrelevant to Iran, I must conclude that you probably have problems with your government. But if so, why Iranian people must pay for that?
Please be honest.
Nobody’s trying to hinder democracy here. I don’t know why you suggest why anyone should “disclose” the U.S. relationship of Saudi Arabia. It’s not a secret.
Seems economic crisis has put Robertie into hardship and pressure. No matter Robertie. I understand you. Have nice time. Enjoy oily dollars.
Mr. Roberts!
watch this week’s Jome Prayer 12 O’clock Tehran time carefully.
You’ll see who we are and what we want.
And be sure that we never let you or your friends interfere in our destiny or change it as you like.
Someday soon every one will understand who is right and who is wrong …
So see you soon Mr. Roberts
8 Votes FOR Mr. Roberts (7 of it by Hammund) so we count it as 2 !!!
and
12 Votes AGAINST his idea .
Let me tell you who is right and who is wrong before hand …. :))
and by the way you are all fake!!! you are stilling the FP international journal’s name (foreign policy on this address –www.foreignpolicy.com– )
why do you lie? … what is your benefit in it?
Try to think independently.
Green Youth, thanks for planting the suggestion for me to vote up the article. I hadn’t done so previously. Nor can I do so again.
There’s no monopoly on the term “foreign policy”. When I created this site, the URL foreignpolicyjournal.com wasn’t taken. Got a problem with me taking it? Is that the best criticism you’ve got? If you want to add something intelligent to the discussion, please feel free. But this–and a few other posts as well–borders on spam. You’ve been notified.
What is now clear and undeniable is that this article has now become a sword in the hands of suppressors. Propaganda machinery of regime now systematically publishes translations of this article to justify its cruelties. Dozens of our brothers and sisters are killed and hundreds more in prisons are under torture. Mr. Roberts can’t be unaware of this events. So he can come here and apologize for what has written here and explicitly condemn brutality in Iran.
We are millions. We are in Iran and all over the world. We can take appropriate measures. But before that it is better to give a time to Mr. Roberts to come here and apologize.
It seems that the responsibility of presenting the source of Paul Robert’s article wrongly as “Foreign Policy” falls on Iranian governmental media. Apart from that, the Persian versions are mostly manipulated with many interpolations and cuts and in many times they don’t even mention the name of the Iranian interviewer. This a domain that unfortunately we can’t do anything. TV and Radio are governmental and the few seemingly not-governmental newspapers have not any possibility to (if they wish) inform people .
Is it possible to expect an official declaration from Foreign Policy’s side (not this site) regarding this kind of informational misdemeanor of Iranian media?
To Paul Roberts,
You may consider your statements as private opinion, that are naturally allowed in a society which grants freedom of speech to all its citizens. But you must care what you say in one country the same statement may have very different implications in another one: Giving e.g. justification or even pretext for slauthering people in another country.
I prefer to look to its clearer side. Better to take a closer look to Iranians and Iranian people.
Your friend
Let’s believe Mr. Paul Robert. Just in a time that our nation is under pressure, he comes here and discloses secret links!!! What have you thought about our nation? By granting $20, $80 or $400 millions do you think you are directing what happens in Iran. Ah? Are you a MEGALOMANIAC? I feel pity for poor tax-payer Americans who are become victims of their freak politicians. Changing or destablizing a regim with such sums of money?!! Are you joking? Please don’t be ashamed. Come here and disclose other sums…
If you want to do something honorable and constructive, you can launch a campaign against all kinds of economic aids possible from American side. We help you also. We will dishonor all who give and all who receive. Ok? And please don’t defame our movement by your irresponsible statements.
I repeat again: WE DON’T NEED YOUR DOLLARS. Keep them in your pockets. 30 years ago we changed many things with bare hands. We are the same nation. We don’t need even sympathy of any kind from American politicians.
To “Long Live Iran”: What can I say? The people like you that sell their country are cheap bastards! That is why 20 million can buy 13 million cheap ignorant!
I agree 100% with Long Live Iran
If Mr. Paul Roberts really believes Iranian Movement is agitated by CIA and with the help of American dollars, and he is honest in his assumptions, he can take measures against those American lawmakers that grant such monies. From Iranian side every honest Iranian who believes in his democratic movement, and respects territorial solidarity of his country is expected to not oppose this idea. Do not forget that suppressors are just seeking pretexts. We can aptly disarm them and pull down their propaganda machine. Iranian democratic is now enough strong. Future is for us.
A lot of posters seem to be quite angry at Mr. Roberts over what he said. I can only guess the assumption of these posters is that Ahmadinejad didn’t legitimately win the election. I again invite posters to bring forth evidence of fraud if they know of any.
As for U.S. support for opposition groups and other means of interfering in Iranian affairs, why get angry at Mr. Roberts for pointing it out? He opposes it as much as you all do.
Jeremy, these people have no evidence to support their claim. It is all speculation no facts what so ever. On the other hand there are a lot of evidence pointing at the fact that U.S has played a major roll in the recent unrest in Iran. For those who seek the truth ( and I am sure there are not many of them ) I will start posting a series of links with the evidence to back my claim. To start I have one question
why would voice of America advertise for Musavi so intensely? May be VOA is sincerely after creating a democracy in Iran!
http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/027782.html
what about you and Mr. Roberts show your evidences about CIA interfering in Iranian peoples peaceful movement ?
I still have a question why are you guys so concerned about my country , its regime and our movement?
Do we interfere in yours? ( I mean Iranian people not your favorite Ahmadinejad’s government who keeps saying that your country is the Greatest evil )
Keep your mouth shut and get the hell out of our business Yankees …
Both Mr. Roberts and myself have written extensively backing up our assertions. http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2009/06/23/has-the-u-s-played-a-role-in-fomenting-unrest-during-irans-election/.
Your turn. Or will you persist in refusing to provide any evidence for your claims?
Also, getting “the hell out” of Iran’s business is exactly what both Mr. Roberts and I propose. You’re preaching to the choir.
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
July 17, 2009 at 10:36 am
Liniar vote ratio graph
http://alef.ir/1388/images/a.jpg
The letter from interior ministry to supreme leader about the real number of votes:
(the letter is in Farsi as far as you know Farsi very well so that you understand Mr. Ahmadinejads statements I didn’t find it necessary to translate it)
http://api.ning.com/files/CCsjBM6kGD1k9OmR1YpA9CzuFg9mWL*qjJCiSyHlmxc4sudowjgrBfNlJF-U2QaBcWA*tbmc8SgoByHQtBNPT8PT-uJllFt3/Ray….jpg
No comment:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_wTwR1tM0upw/SkGmJYPr92I/AAAAAAAADC0/EgLPlJsIUrI/s400/%D9%86%D8%AF%D8%A7+%D8%A2%D9%82%D8%A7%E2%80%8C%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%B7%D8%A7%D9%86+4.jpg
funny graphs based on interior ministry released data:
(purple: Ahmadinejad — Blue: Musavi)
http://www.myup.ir/images/hbnhiltugbz2doijlbn.jpg
http://www.myup.ir/images/rox52mphwuzdh4gdozic.jpg
You need more go through the following address and read it all
(of course in Farsi)
http://www.google.com/search?hl=fa&q=+%D8%AA%D9%82%D9%84%D8%A8+%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA&btnG=%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%A8&lr=
(you realy think you can moderate my comments you pigeon?!)
Green Youth, there’s no need for childish name-calling. Because you included so many links, your comment was not automatically posted but was held for moderation. Your “evidence”: 1) The Linear vote ratio graph is a joke. It’s exactly what one would expect. No further comment. 2) The letter is an apparent fraud. I’ve yet to see any verification of its authenticity. Tehran Bureau pulled it from its website after Robert Fisk and others called the bluff on that forgery. 3) I don’t know what you think the gruesome image of Neda proves. 4) Ditto the “funny graphs”. 5) I can see you’re not taking this seriously.
To “Green Youth from Iran”: HA ha ha.. Truth hurts… doesn’t it?
You People working in this website! NO need to be worried. We kick off CIA agents and WE ACCOMPLISH OUR DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENT :) :) :)
Aliakbar, glad to hear it. (It’s not “people”, though, just me. Other writers contribute content, but the site management is a one-man operation.)
Saber, I deleted your comment. If you think you can post meaningful contributions to this discussion, you are more than welcome to exercise the privilege that I grant to you to post. If all you have to offer, on the other hand, is slander, insults, and ad hominem attacks, I’ll be happy to exercise my right to moderate the discussion.
Anti-liar, I likewise deleted your comment. Same goes for you. Make your argument with resorting entirely to the ad hominem. You’re more than welcome to post an argument if you actually have one. Further posts from any poster consisting only of ad hominem arguments will be immediately deleted.
To “new guy”:
I believe in the exact opposite thing. what hurts is lying , cheating and dishonesty.
You can see the reaction to dishonesty on the comments mentioned above.
To “all”:
Thanks to “bonita costa” and others , at least we were able to put to rest this nonsense that Jeremy or Mr. Roberts are on the Iranian payroll or their agents. (this was the first chapter: Slander!)
Now a new chapter: Authenticate your statements
We are trying to authenticate our statements. We have to rely on credible sources (Unless we have to go back and claim that ABC, RUTER, USA today,….etc are on Iranian payroll!).
Here is a link to USA today to prove that the money for this operation is From USA and friends:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2009-06-25-iran-money_N.htm
THERE IS MANY MORE….I think most of you that are writing against Jeremy or Mr. Roberts do agree with this and want it stopped. If this statement is true, please write, so we can go to next chapter “What to do?”, otherwise there will be more links to prove that USA and friends have their finger prints all over this.
I am still waiting for an answer to my question from one of the greenies.
Why would Voice of America advertise for Musavi so intensely? Who pays for VOA?
Put the two answer together and IF you are after the truth you’ll find out why this was not a grass rout movement.
The ” New guy” mentioned one of the links that I was going to post so I will post another article from a stock site. Yep the guy had a blog about stocks and just got curious how over night ( June 13 and 14 ) twitter got filled with similar articles about election fraud in Iran. So he started investigating the sources. Interestingly enough he narrowed dawn most of those articles to 3 sources two of which were in Jerusalem ! I wounder how Ahmadinejad can pay all these blogers and journalists with oil prices dawn.
http://www.chartingstocks.net/2009/06/proof-israeli-effort-to-destabilize-iran-via-twitter/
AND
http://www.chartingstocks.net/2009/06/jpost-removes-the-evidence-and-issues-a-response-iranelection/
Sure FBI must be more cautious about NGO’s and foundations working under the cover of charity. I wonder why American officials are such ignorant in financial aspects of foreign influences.
To “Hamidreza”:
Could it be that it is your imagination? May be there is nothing to worry about! Or you think you can see it, but FBI can not? May be you should run for the top FBI spot.
1) There are many indications of vote-rigging. Mousavi has published a large document in this regard, I am not aware if there is any English version of it. There were many irregularities in the process of counting votes and announcing the results. There are also several solid statistical studies of the election results which confirm serious irregularities.
2) I think Mousavi made a simple suggestion, and I do not understand why it was ignored. It is known that every voter had to write his/her national number on the ballot. Instead of recounting of the 10% of votes, Mousavi suggested checking the national numbers with the official database. But that was rejected (?)
3) Mousavi is not the only one who thinks votes are rigged; two other candidates share the same opinion. Mr Rezaee’s representative (his brother) said to the press that during recounting of the 10% of votes, he has noticed that many votes had the same hand-writing and were written by one pen. Well, I cannot confirm this one, but it shows how much Mr Rezaee, the most moderate person among the losers, doubts the results.
4) Many people believe there were irregularities in the previous presidential election, 4 years ago; well, I do not know how many, but at least I knew that certain candidates in the previous election, including Mr Karubi, Mr Hashemi and Mr Ghalibaf, claimed (4 years) that there was serious fraud in Ahmadinejad’s election. Therefore, there was some kind of suspicion about the possibility of fraud before the recent election. Is that logical to accept that all of these has happened as part of the “color revolution” ??! They are not separate from it anyway; even Mr Ghalibaf (now the mayor of Tehran) has supported the protest.
5) According to Timmerman “NED money intended to promote a “color revolution” reached pro-Mousavi groups”. Roberts, by his “duck test”, believes that Mousavi intended in producing “ an uproar in the event of a different outcome”. Roberts makes a vague statement “ Other obvious elements of orchestration are apparent. “!!! And he concludes “They suggest that groundwork was laid for protests and that the protests were not entirely spontaneous.” Assume pro-Mousavi groups started their plots a decade ago; according to Timmerman, pro-Mousavi groups shouldn’t have received more than couple of million dollars in one decade (or at least 4 years) for their activities if we optimistically assume that their supporters outside Iran have given them all the money. As far as I know Mousavi has had many wealthy supporters in Iran, I do not think this money was anything comparable to what Mousavi could receive from his supporters inside Iran!!!
6) “President George W. Bush signed an order in May 2007 for the CIA to mount a covert “black” propaganda and disinformation operation to destabilize and eventually topple the Iranian political regime. There are also a number of published reports that the U.S. government funds terrorist organizations within Iran that carry out assassinations and bombings.” What does this have to do with Mousavi? Does it suggest that Mousavi has received supports from them?! Or is involved in their organization?! Isn’t this logic nonsense?
7) “My opinion, based on what I understand at this time, is that there are Iranian youth, especially in Tehran, who are secularized and westernized and who find the Islamic moral code oppressive.” strange opinion! University students are the core of the protests; and this has a long known history. I do not think they are superficial! Moreover, they are not “pro-mousavi”, they are “anti-Ahmadineja” and there are obvious reasons for that. By “anti-Ahmadineja”, I do not mean his person of course; but what this person is reprehensive of.
8) How can I believe that all these renown people who are behind the bars are part of a big plot backed (to a great extend) by America? While there are far many evidences to make one believe that what happened in Iran was a plot against reformist and pro-democratic thinkers..maybe backed by America !!?? ….certainly not by Russia or communists…!!!!??
9) Jeremy, these days many people inside Iran try to hide their IP address when they connect to the Internet. I think somebody from Iran might have a USA IP. It is not necessarily dishonesty! Many people writing here might be angry, this does not mean “intolerance”. There are obvious reasons for their anger. Especially those who are worried about the situation of people who were arrested recently That’s enough for now!
Amir R,
1) I’ve seen the claims. I have yet to see hard evidence. I know of the Mousavi document, but have never seen it and don’t think there’s a copy in English. Do you have a copy in Persian you could share with us?
2) What good would that do? What’s wrong with a recount?
3) I’ve examined the evidence for and debunked that claim here: http://hammond.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2009/07/05/huffpo-the-lede-et-al-issue-propaganda-on-iran-election/
4) “Belief” is not enough. It requires evidence.
5) But you didn’t deny the possibility.
6) It fits a pattern of interference and attempts to destabilize. It goes towards character and motive.
7) Oh. I didn’t realize green was the color of “anti-Ahmadinejad” rather than “pro-Mousavi”. (Sarcasm intended).
8) They aren’t necessarily part of a “plot”. Many may not even be aware of the U.S. role.
9) Possible. Many people from the U.S. also try to claim they are from Iran. Take Twitterers, for example, who set their accounts to Tehran time. I’ll stick to going by their IP address.
To “Amir R”:
You have repeated What Mr. Musavi have tabulated in his complaint. I am surprised that you have not seen the following extensive report (with all of its attachments; letters went back and forth…etc) by Guardian Council which addresses all of the complaints and describes how they reached their decision that there was no vote rigging!
http://www.shora-gc.ir/portal/Home/ShowPage.aspx?Object=News&CategoryID=4d425fd9-748e-4826-8378-24118396b087&LayoutID=7952d93c-6e32-4abc-8026-eb54e465f88a&ID=4086d4f9-0a6d-4f02-a597-2bdced99f99e
How do you answer “bonita costa” question on VOA?
How do you explain the following:
Following is a link to Timmerman writing on June 11 (One day before the voting in Iran). He writes about “Green revolution” in advance of it happening! He describes Mehdi Khazali’s (Campaign manager for Mr. Mussavi) contact with state department friendly contacts in Dubai, and how right after they met, Mr Khazali went on the air of VOA…..
http://www.newsmax.com/timmerman/Iran_election_Reformists/2009/06/11/224025.html
Why did Mr. Musavi announced his win in the election while the counting was still going on?
Did anybody in his staff betrayed him?
If you claim Russia is behind this, please provide some proof. We are trying to stay away from the speculations.
To “Jeremy R. Hammond”:
I know you asked “Amir R” for this link, but I had it handy. Mr Musavi’s complaints are in three sections. I will post the address to all three. It is in Farsi.
http://www.ghalamnews.ir/news-21213.aspx
http://www.ghalamnews.ir/news-21217.aspx
http://www.ghalamnews.ir/news-21218.aspx
The Guardian Council have addressed these issues, and anyone that is after truth can easily see that there has not been any vote rigging. The link was provided in the previous post.
New guy,
Thank you very much. That’s very helpful. I don’t know Persian, but at least I can save these for future reference and have someone translate it for me later. I already got the Guardian Council report.
to Jeremy Hammond
Why you are defending this shameful article? You are hand in hand with Iranian governmental media.
to Jeremy
I suppose you have read following article:
http://www.commondreams.org/view/2009/06/28-10
That is an example of a honorable job. That article teaches many things to you. Why you are so much unaware of Iranian issues? and why you dare yourself to put together your crude childish thinking about a matter you have not a minimum sound knowledge?
Zabihi,
You supposed rightly. I have read Mr. Erlich’s article. My response to that nonsense is here:
http://hammond.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2009/06/28/reese-elrich-responds-to-fpj-on-iran-election-article/
It’s funny how you clearly don’t have a problem with Americans who don’t speak Farsi writing in support of the so-called “pro democracy” reformist movement.
to Jeremy
You pretend to be impartial and democrat. You don’t care impartiality yourself. Take look. in a comment one of greenies (Long Live Iran) proposes a logical solution. He condemns any American political interference in Iranian internal matters. Another commenter (New guy) answers him with a very abusive language. Why you have ignored this blatant abuse? Is this the meaning of your impartiality? You have deleted comments because of apparently ad hominem attacks. How you interpret this paradox?
Please be honest Jeremy
to Jeremy
You say you don’t know Persian (Farsi). What you think about a supposed political analyzer who don’t know English and notwithstanding of that claims boastfully to be a specialist in American issues?
To New Guy:
“You have repeated What Mr. Musavi have tabulated in his complaint. I am surprised that you have not seen the following……”
Aren’t you repeating what the Guardian Council says? They are talking “too general” too (kolli-gooee) . In any case, Guardian Council has approved candidacy of 3 people who are not honest even in simple things! Can one trust them then?
“How do you answer “bonita costa” question on VOA?”
What does he say?! In any case, everybody knows that VOA is not impartial about Iran.
“How do you explain the following:
Following is a link to Timmerman writing on June 11 (One day before the voting in Iran). He writes about “Green revolution” in advance of it happening! He describes Mehdi Khazali’s (Campaign manager for Mr. Mussavi) …..”
So, why Khazali was arrested a week after the election and is released from the prison, but Hajarian (a half-alive man for the last 8 years!) was arrested immediately and is still in prison?
How much do you know about Khazali? He would have certainly supported Ahmadinejad, but he has many reasons not to do so. In a press conference, Ahmadinejad denies existence of any homosexuals in Iran; as a physician, Khazali find this claim incorrect and this way of hiding inappropriate for many scientific and moral reasons; is this part of an American backed plot? Then why he supports Mr Palizdar? One must assume he is working for both party then! I didn’t know he is so capable!!! How can you base all your reasoning on certain speculations about one incident in Khazali’s life? I think this can be production of an ill mind only!
Why did Mr. Musavi announced his win in the election while the counting was still going on?
I simply think that was according to the unofficial statistics that he received from his representatives. Now you tell me, Why the supreme leader confirmed the re-election of Ahmadinejad prior to Guardian Councils’ confirmation? Why for the first time in our election history, it was announced (before the election day) that Tehran’s anti-riot police has scheduled a manoeuvre on the day after the election (manovr-e eghtedar)? (even the name “eghtedar” suggest a sense of “superiority” and “force”; therefore terrifying)….Many many other “why” s… not enough space here…
“Did anybody in his staff betrayed him?”
What does it mean?!!
“If you claim Russia is behind this, please provide some proof. We are trying to stay away from the speculations.”
You invite me to avoid speculations, and at the same time you invite me to read certain speculations of others (other Americans!) but did I say Russians are behind this?! I am just curious to know what happened that Islamic republic changed her mind about the “not west, not east” slogan (?) what happened that Russia became our fiend and Chavez ahmadinejad’s brother!
How much do you know about communists influence in Iran? A Russian “Timmerman” would have been dead before he could tell us anything. But there are many evidences of their meddling if your criteria are some meetings or contacts! In any case, there is one big difference between Americans and Russians; Russians are not naïve! they do not spend money to destabilize, they receive money to destabilize!
Paul is completely right. Israel and its puppet Government in Washington DC cannot tolerate any independent nation. Just watch what happened to France when Jacques Chirac supported an autonomous policy in Iraq. He and the whole of France were portraited as antisemites and Israelis call for French Jews to emigrate from France or they would die in a new Holocaust…all false, and some French Jews told these idiots to shut up. Later Chirac was overthrown by a Zionist Coalition wich didn´t share any ideology apart from Zionism: Sarkozy, Koutchner, Attali. Strauss-Khan, Glucksmann etc. Some were Socialistis and others Conservatives. The only thing in common they had was Israel, the same as American Neocons.
To Jeremy:
1) I said “indications”. I am not aware of any “hard evidence”. I wonder if you can find one when the Guardian Conceal (the spelling is right!) and the supreme leader are all big fans of Ahmadinejad (before and after the election). The ministry of interior affairs is also under Ahmadinejad’s control. What do you expect? Why shouldn’t I think that the plot was so cleaver, Ahmadinejad’s team and his rich friend, Mr Mahsooli, didn’t leave any “evidence” behind! It looks like a color revolution (black!) by Ahmadinejad; isn’t it?
The documents you asked are mainly provided by New Guy. GC ’s document is a more interesting one though. I wished you knew Farsi. It answers the candidates in a way that as if all 3 candidates are lunatics! Then why they were approved by the same GC some month earlier?!! I mean, look, the GC’s after their “careful examinations” have selected 4 people, among them 3 are insane! Moreover, at least one of them was prepared for a “color” revolution! And at least one more candidate is involved in the plot knowingly or unknowingly! Isn’t it bizarre!?
2) If the numbers don’t mach? Or they don’t exist? Of course, it is cheaper and faster than recounting; isn’t it?
3) before reading your examination, I said “I cannot confirm this one, but it shows how much Mr Rezaee, the most moderate person among the losers, doubts the results.”
4) evidence: that’s Mousavi’s problem! But what you think is also your “belief”; isn’t it?
5 & 6) but I argue “how”. I understand Mr R. has concerns about the media propaganda and US meddling. But does he care about destabilization of Iran too? I don’t think he does (why should he?) you know, it was very interesting to read “President George W. Bush signed an order in May 2007 for the CIA to mount a covert “black” propaganda and disinformation operation to destabilize….” I don’t think I could ever find any better expression to depict Ahmadinejad : “black” propaganda and disinformation!!! Thanks!
7) I am talking about the idea that unites all the protesters. but do you mean only pro-mousavi group is protesting? Then why Karubi was attacked last Friday prayer? Why Abtahi is in prison? I have not voted for Mousavi!
8- (I did not mean to have the funny character!) I think that is too simplifying. if we must doubt everything, then we have to ask Mr T. or CIA agents how they gave money to the Green House show (khaneh sabz) some 15 years ago (something like “everybody loves Raymond show” of islamic republic state TV)?! Unfortunately ( or fortunately), Khosro Shakeebaie (the actor) is dead, otherwise the Islamic republic could make him confess!
This is my last post.A
So, Amir R, let me see if I got this straight. The lack of evidence that the election was stolen proves that it was stolen, right?
I think I’ll leave my response to your “last post” at that. ‘Nuff said.
Amir,
You say that the “vote rigging” plan was so clever, so as not to leave any evidence behind. As you know, the per-polling-station numbers have been released by the Ministry of Interior for some 45000 polling stations. Although there are numerous small-scale irregularities in the numbers, the sum of all of them hardly goes into the million, let alone 11 million (the gap between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi’s official votes). It leads a reasonable and impartial observer to attribute them to errors, typing mistakes, adding mistakes, even minor vote rigging by some enthusiastic supporters, etc. which are quite natural in the hand-operated and error-prone process in which hundreds of thousands of volunteers and employees are involved. If there were any systematic, widespread and coordinated effort to rig the votes so much that it affects the election results, it would show up easily in the per-polling-station numbers and tens of thousands of Mousavi’s supervisors who were fully present at the stations would complain about wrong numbers (not to mention the ordinary people working at the polling stations). Every statistician will tell you that it’s extremely difficult to make up numbers in such a way that a massive fraud goes unproven, since it’s quite easy to uncover such a large-scale fraud by statistical methods.
And yes, I have read Mousavi’s Vote Preservation Committee’s final report (گزارش تفصیلی کمیتهی صیانت از آرا) which tries to decisively list the “evidences” supporting fraud claims, and I have also read election authorities’ answer to it. If you look at them impartially, you can’t say for sure who is being sincere; but frankly, I expected some real evidence, not the somehow disappointing unverifiable claims in the report, since Mousavi appeared very confident when he claimed that fraud had happened and I thought he had some compelling evidence on that.
Mohammad,
I did not think I can find any time to write here; but fortunately one of my meetings were canceled today; so I better write for people who will read this discussions later. Just for clarification:
My family have come from a part of Iran which consists mainly of small villages. According to my relatives, Ahmadinejad has some 10% votes in the village. The scale is almost the same in the surrounding villages. Now, the announced results show about 70% support for Ahmadinejad in that area! Well, 60% vote means an average probability of meeting 6 voters out of 10 voting for Ahmadinejad. I have not seen that, nor my friends, nor my relatives (the majority of them are not living in Tehran). I have to add that, the widespread belief that Ahmadinjad gets his support from rural areas is not supported by the official results of previous election 4 years ago (there is a BBC report on that). It is just an illusion. Two of my aunts are primary school teachers (one in Tehran and one in my hometown). They were involved in organizing and working in polling stations based in schools; they gave me a different account too. The day after the election, they called their colleges and friends in other stations, again no such a 60% vote! Also, in a conference last week I met some Iranians (some of them coming directly from Iran) that I did not knew before; their observation and what they have heard from their relatives and friends and colleges does not approve (optimistically) more than 20% vote for Ahmadinejd. I am really struggling to digest how he got more than 60% vote! دم خروس یا قسم حضرت ابوالفضل
We have to examine each question of Mousavi and GC’s answer one by one to see if GC “answers” or finds an “excuse”. In my opinion in certain cases, where the argument is strong, the GC says nonsense, or implicitly tells the 3 candidates “ you are out of your minds”! I am Persian, I am not illiterate! so I understand the connotation of each sentence!
What you say about irregularities are not my points. You know, the progress of communication technology permits us to see what happened in the streets after the election, instead of relying on the Iranian’s state TV which tries to show everything is normal and all people are happy! (I am not sure if after the death of Rooholamini, Zarghami, the head of the state TV and a close friend of Roholamini’s father, can continue doing that! (You can see the symptom in the one recent unusual radio Javan report). In the same way, advancement in statistical analysis tools allows us to examine the results more rigorously and scientifically. You can look at works of Walter R. Mebane and Boudewijn F. Roukema to see the irregularities.
If you can find a just court, I will volunteer for gathering real “evidences”.
Amir,
What do you mean?
Where do you live?!
I live in Iran. I live in Tehran. I see, I feel, I think. I see the Green Revolution.
Also I have several friends and relatives in several regions such as Lorestan, Semnan, Mashhad, Ahvaz,… the first choice of people in most of regions was Ahmadinejad.
I’m sure there was no effective fraud in election.
Although, I participated in most of protests.
But I think, Real Protests against the regime in Iran are not more than 3 millions but also are less. There was some strikes during the days after the election, especially the 30 Tir strike and trying to blackout the country in that time (July,21) by using high power devices such as iron at 21 o’clock. It was possible in Iran (at middle of summer) if at least 3 millions of people was doing this job. But, Although there was a lot advertisements for it during 2weeks before 30 Tir, no type of blackout happened!!!
As I searched and fund out, the green revolution is going on. But the certain fact is that Ahmadinejad is the real winner of the election with no effective fraud. the fraud (if there has been existed) can not be more than 1.5 million votes.
Amir,
Interesting observation. Interestingly, I had a similar observation which surprised me when I thought about it: I am a student in a prominent engineering university in Tehran. Obviously, the “atmosphere” in the university was quite pro-reform and pro-Mousavi before the election, which is consistent with the common perception that most of the students supported Mousavi.
But once I tried to actually count the people I had asked them who they were voting for, and I got 3 Ahmadinejad supporters and 3 Mousavi supporters! (I voted for neither) The Ahmadinejad supporters who I knew were almost shy when they talked about who they were going to vote for, contrary to Mousavi supporters who were loud and expressed themselves more, wore green wristbands, and they used any occasion to ridicule Ahmadinejad and gather support for Mousavi (which is natural given that they were the opposition who wanted to throw Ahmadinejad out). So they gave the impression that they are the majority. That is, the “atmosphere” was pro-Mousavi but my personal headcount of the people I knew, showed an even distribution of the two sides.
Of course, the people I knew may not be representative of the Iranian public opinion, but that applies to Mousavi supporters too. I think “personal observations” are not reliable indicators of the public opinion, since it is plausible that a candidate X supporter hangs out more with other candidate X supporters and there’s probably a high correlation among the votes of relatives and friends. (There’s a statistical discussion of this phenomenon in the Alef newssite)
Then how should one assess the validity of the election results? The answer is independent polls. Generally few polls on Iranian elections are trusted, and I am aware of only two such polls. I have mentioned them in the postscript at the end of my comment here, one conducted by Terror Free Tomorrow and one by ISPA (Iranian Students Polling Agency) both of which show Ahmadinejad’s lead (I have found a copy of ISPA’s report). Both are arguable, since TFT’s poll was conducted one month before the voting and ISPA’s was two weeks before it. But considering Ahmadinejad’s performance in the debates (which occurred after these polls) and his unprecedented and surprising remarks against some powerful people in the debate with Mousavi (which probably boosted Ahmadinejad’s popularity given Iranian people’s attitude against those people and their perceived financial corruption) it is reasonable to beleive the results.
Overally, and based on the information available publicly, I think that to be objective, one can’t say for sure if any fraud happened or not, since both possibilities are quite plausible.
Sorry I couldn’t stick to my word! But Mohammad brought up things that are worth answering.
Asghar:
I know about the green movement. But here we are talking about its causes. Such claims as what you see in Mr. R’s interview is translated and celebrated by Iranian right extremists. Such excuses can be used to torture or even kill prisoners in Iran.
Mohammad,
What Alef says does not refer to random data selection trial. Alef’s argument is too childish comparing to what we know about “how to lie with statistics” . Moreover, there are far better analytical tools based on pure data; I gave some references.
Concerning your comment on the debates: it is surprising indeed! “his unprecedented and surprising remarks against…” you might have forgotten but I have not : Ahmadinejad said similar things 4 years ago! In all these four years he has been doing other things; for example, he is trying to bringing Israel to the court of justice instead of bringing Rafsanjani to the court! And he has done neither! Look, everybody knows about Palizdar… Second, he showed his expertise in finding academic credentials of people (like Rahnavard), but I wonder why he didn’t use the same expertise to choose his own advisors, like Kordan. What about his debate with Rezaee? I have to think either you have not read enough about Ahmadinejad’s 4-year of administration, or most Iranians do not know how to count!? I am sorry, but it is all the more reason not to believe the results!
I could accept your last paragraph if there was not so much cruelty after the election. We should not take things out of their contexts.
Amir,
Alef’s argument simply outlines that what “you see” (personal observations) is not necessarily representative of the Iranian public opinion, since everyone is more likely to interact with like-minded people, and I think this particular article is objective and precise in this regard. It has just used common sense and hasn’t used some obscure sophisticated statistical method (not “lying with statistics”). It also doesn’t conclude that fraud didn’t happen, it is just stating the anomalies which can be introduced by personal “polls”. After all, what is independent, representative and scientific polling all about?
And on the Ahmadinejad’s remarks in debate with Mousavi, did you watch the debate? Weren’t you shocked when he explicitly named people such as Rafsanjani’s and Nateq Nouri’s sons? He accused them of financial corruption and pretended that they’re allied against him because they feared he could throw them out of business. He had never done that before (nobody had done that before), that is, naming some powerful people and accusing them of such things, in a live debate on national TV! Note, I’m not implying that he was honest in his remarks, but if you are familiar with the average working-class Iranian you know how this appeals to them. Most people (mostly lower-middle class) are not as political savvy as you are and don’t analyze as you do. They may even not be aware of Palizdar’s case since their only medium of news is national TV. They may even be aware of him, but then again they think that Ahmadinejad is with Palizdar but powerful people stopped him of meddling in that case. If you interact with such people (e.g. look at their comments in conservative newssites) you realize that many of them see Ahmadinejad as a lonely, brave man who is trying his best to fight financial corruption. I’m not arguing about whether this perception is right or wrong, I’m saying that Ahmadinejad was successful in his debates to gather support for himself, particularly the debates with Mousavi and Karroubi (I watched all of his debates live). Most people I saw agreed that Mousavi and Karroubi performed weakly in these debates. This Time article explains more about this and has interviewed people who agree with me.
About your last paragraph, I would accept it if I hadn’t seen the polls I mentioned (which showed Ahmadinejad’s lead) and if Mousavi was able to point to some verifiable evidence of fraud (given that the poll counts for all polling stations have been released). Suppose that no election fraud happened, and some candidate didn’t accept the results and called on his supporters to come to the streets. What would the security forces do? Based on the mindset of people in IRGC, Basij, and Intelligence Ministry, who are literally terrified of the prospect of a “velvet revolution” and think that everyone is actively working to overthrow the Islamic Republic and are ready to overlook moral values when it comes to “defending” the IR, I think it is likely that they did the same thing if no fraud happened.
I said I met some people in a conference who had the same observation; this is independent of my personal contacts, it is random (unless you think everybody in physics departments are pro-Mousavi!)
The book “how to lie with statistics” does not contain any “obscure sophisticated statistical method”, it is based on common sense; don’t mix things up. The guy who has written the article is a university math student.
“Weren’t you shocked when he explicitly named people such as Rafsanjani’s and Nateq Nouri’s sons?…” This is too naïve. You might be too young. This is not something shocking at all…. After 30 years nobody believes in such talks, everybody knows that’s just a political game…. Have you seen any action? ……. this is not what people believe in my parents’ village, (that I can tell you for sure) unless you think all people in that area have internet and they are watching satellite TV everyday and/or they are all “like-minded”!
For people who don’t know: they get their real news when they go to pilgrimage to Mashahd or ghom or places like that, the word of mouth is the strongest!
“if you are familiar with the average working-class Iranian you know how this appeals to them.”
Who do you think I am? From which social level I am? From which social level do you think these students in Tehran, Isfahan and Shiraz who live in dormitories are? Aren’t they mainly from the average working-class families?
Again for people who don’t know: if you, as a student, are from Tehran, you won’t be given a room in the dormitory of Tehran University. All theses student who were beaten in the middle of the night are not from Tehran, are not from upper-class families….. they were not asked if they are pro-mousavi or not in the middle of the night when they were brutally attacked …. Their only sin is “thinking” ….
I clearly know Mousavi and Karroubi performed weakly in the debates; but what about Rezaee? Also if they performed weakly, it doesn’t mean Ahmadinejad performed well. When I asked the opinion of my illiterate mother-in-low about the debates, she told me this “Ahmadinejad talks in a way that you think everybody around the world is starving to death, only we in Iran are living in Paradise, and our situation is getting better every day!” Do you know where is Ferdos in tehran? This is the common sense of an illiterate in Ferdos…..
You are calming that lower-middle classes of our country do not know how to think; well I can not agree to that; I am one of them, my young siblings are from there.
For the readers: Our problem is people who know how to think but they abuse it…..
“Suppose that no election fraud happened, and some candidate didn’t accept the results and called on his supporters to come to the streets……”
first of all the riot police manoeuver (manovre-eghtedar) was scheduled way before the election day; second, mousavi never asked anybody to come to the street… you may accuse rafsanjani’s wife for that!!!!…….the day after the brutal attack to the Tehran university, a supporter of Mousavi went there and talked to the student; if you are in Tehran university, you can tell people who that person was and what was the message…..
Amir,
I have seen people with the mindset I mentioned, and they tend to be either from the lower-middle class or not highly educated. Clearly this doesn’t mean that all of such people supported Ahmadinejad, I’m talking about the norm. In fact, I know some quite educated people from educated families who voted for Ahmadinejad for the reason I said, and I know of wealthy Ahmadinejad supporters too (e.g. Shahrzad is an active and educated blogger who supported Ahmadinejad). I’m talking about the norm, not the exceptions (which are numerous; after all, Mousavi got at least 32% of the votes!). When we’re talking about social affairs it’s typical to make such generalizations. Even my remarks about people in IRGC, Basij and Intelligence Ministry in the previous comment were of this kind; many of them are quite ordinary and rational people, many even supported Mousavi and many were unhappy with their respective organizations’ approach to the protests.
You are saying that calling Ahmadinejad’s remarks shocking is naively. Maybe you don’t understand the significance because you don’t live in Iran. Those remarks were ofcourse surprising. Even Mousavi clearly didn’t expect such an approach by Ahmadinejad. This is not the U.S. where people openly talk against powerful politicians. Ahmadinejad broke a IRR’s red line when he said such things on the state-run TV. I’m sure most of Iranians would agree with that, no matter who they supported.
Maybe you haven’t seen typical Ahmadinejad supporters since you don’t live in Iran. I recently met an Ahmadinejad supporter who was in fact more Rafsanjani-hating that Ahmadinejad-supporting. I cannot overstate his hatred for Rafsanjani. He talked about Rafsanjani like he was the father of all evil in Iran, and even called him worse than Hitler! He was claiming that Ahmadinejad did something that no one, even Khamenei, had ever dared to do, i.e. confronting Rafsanjani. He admitted that Ahmadinejad is no saint, but at least he has the balls to confront Rafsanjani (He said “قبل از احمدینژاد هیچ کس مردش نبود که جلوی رفسنجانی بایسته “) and this was the reason that he supported Ahmadinejad. You have to see these people to understand that Ahmadinejad played a very clever game, i.e. gathering support for himself on a platform of anit-Rafsanjanism.
It’s difficult to estimate what Iranians really think and want. Iran is a very divided country and polls often give surprising results, contrary to what many observers think. As an example, a survey by WPO found that only 18% of Iranians are reformists, while 45% of Iranians are conservatives (based on “level of support for the regime”). Another 2008 poll showed that a clear majority of Iranians expressed satisfaction with the “process by which the authorities are elected in this country” and approved of “the way President Ahmadinejad is handling his job as president”. The media give us other impressions than these polls , and I think that’s because Iranian reformists and dissidents use publicity tools (e.g. reaching out to Western media and using blogs and social networks) more effectively than conservatives.
Mohammad,
Ahmadinejad supporters are interested in (and have adopted) a particular type of dialogue. Some fervent supporters of Ahmadinejad, like Samaneh Ekvan (http://www.ekvan.blogfa.com), call it “ahmadinejadian dialogue”. They seem to forget that an argument is based not only on logical process but also on the data; the data acts like the very foundation of an argument. In “ahmadinejadian dialogue”, the logical process of an argument remains consistent; but, most of the time their argument is based on misrepresented data. There is a particular effort in their side to present the data in a misleading way or give misinformation. You can see traces of wrong information in many of samaneh ekvan’s post. This is just one example.
In the debates, Rezaee clearly challenged Ahmadinejad’s presentation of certain information. Ahmadinejad failed to support his argument. For example, Ahmadinejad had claimed that the unemployment rate has decreased during his term. In his debate with Rezaee, Ahmadinejad accepted that he has presented two reports with two different criteria. His presentation of unemployment rate of the previous administrations was based on “ employment = 2 days working in a week”; but for his term, the criterion was “employment = 2 hours working in a week”. Many people think this is called cheating. But if Ahmadinejad supporters want to pass silently over this, so be it…
Instead, Ahmadinejad supports cling onto some unrealistic data. In their opinion, and they force it onto others, it is natural to think that ahmadinejad was expected to win the election for the same reasons that he won it last time and even with the same ratio! There is no satisfactory explanation for that. It does not go with what we saw in the last 12 years, to say the least. Being aware of Nategh’s corruption, people didn’t vote for him 12 years ago despite the supreme leader’s support for him. For very obvious and realistic reasons, such as economy and unemployment, people voted for reformist 12 years ago and 8 years ago. The same people voted for a conservative 4 years ago. At the time, they thought a conservative can work better with the parliament, which was mainly dominated with conservatives; also he had the support of Khamenei. Now some people might be too obsessed with political and ideological differences between reformist and conservatives, but the society in general is after economical improvement; they simply thought Ahmadinejad would do a better job.
On top of Ahmadinejad’s failure in improving the economy despite the legendary increase of the oil price, he has no savings and was begging the parliament to pass his 2009 bill, which in the opinion of the parliament (chosen by people and mainly conservative) and many economists and journalists could have highly affected the life of average-income people. If the society does not know the details of what is going on (that I doubt), it can obviously feel the backward move of the government. Given the high population of Iranian young people, the main concern of the society is unemployment and economical crises. Many young people came out to vote in the hope of a better future, not for some obscure reason. If Ahmadinejad’s supporters believe that many people got emotional for just one or two sentences that Ahmadinejad said in his debates (and they didn’t listen to the rest) and voted for him, so be it…
Let me add in passing that, our people are aware of Rafsanjani’s corruption, that’s why he couldn’t win the support of Tehranians when he ran for the parliament election. In respond to Ahmadinejad’s criticism of Mousavi, many reason that Ahmadinejad has also problematic supporters, like Janati who is not less than Rafsanjani in abusing his power, even worse.
Most analysts have serious reservations about such statistical reports, such as the size of the sample (710 in one of the report is not such a good sample) and where this sample is taken and how; however, I will accept the report as it is. As you quote the reports, it indicates a good percentage of people have no strict political convection. That’s why they might vote for a reformist or a conservative according to the circumstances. Also conservatives are not all supportive of Ahmadinejad.
If many approved of “the way President Ahmadinejad is handling his job as president” in 2008, it still doesn’t mean they think there isn’t any other person who can act better than Ahmadinejad. One must consider two things: 1) support for Mousavi has a long history; many clearly remember that Mousavi was a key factor in Khatami’s win 12 years ago. 2) Ahmadinejad’s 2009 bill could be the reason of his support downfall.
I believe that many people are satisfied with the “process by which the authorities are elected in this country”; but the question is not “what process has to be carried out”; the question is “how the process has to be carried out”. Also getting fingerprints and national numbers on the ballots is all part of the process; they are taken for some reason; it is not a luxury.
We have to put different aspects of a statistical report together in order to have a clear understanding of it. I just point out to one thing in the same report; it says
“Iranians express much greater support for a government in which “the Supreme Leader, along with all leaders, can be chosen and replaced by a free and direct vote of the people” (86% support, including 71% strongly support) than for a government in which “the Supreme Leader rules according to religious principles and cannot be chosen or replaced by a direct vote of the people” (38% support, including 19% strongly support).”
I must add that people think in the same way about the members of the Guardian Council. This again brings up the question of “how” about the election process.
To “Amir”:
Please show me the proof that there is a fraud! Everything you say is speculation and based on what your aunt or friends are telling you. Amir is trying to tell you nicely that this is wrong. A skinhead does not associate with an African American. Please provide proof for what ever you claim, then we are on the right track. I see your debate with Mohammad is becoming more like pre-election debate. That is fine if you like Mr. Mussavi. You probably voted for him, and that is the right course. That is how it should be done and not in the streets. Try again in 4 years.
New Guy,
There is no proof that I believe the election was sound too. On the contrary, there are scientific proofs of irregularities of the election results. If you are not able to understand them, it is not my fault. You better answer the questions I asked you instead of speculating on what I have done, don’t try to ridicule your opponent (this is another Ahmadinejadian base trick); you cannot prove anything by that.
To “Amir”:
Just because you do not see(or don’t want to see) any proof that the election is sound , does not equate to the election being fraud. I was not ridiculing you. It is fine to me if you are not fund of Mr. Ahmadinejad or if you like Mr. Mussavi. All I am saying is that the street is not the place to debate the issue. I am inviting you and people who think like you to debate the issues (not the people) for the next election (Which is coming in 4 years). The reason I say do not debate people, is because Mr. Ahmadinejad will not be eligible for the next run. So, I am again inviting greenies to debate the issues. Pick the top 10 most important topics(grudge), and we can debate it in a civilized way.
Please state things that can be proved (I am from a village in Iran…type of things does not cut it). I can easily claim that I am a greenie and live in Tehran and I received money from CIA agent (met in Iran as a tourist)… Common… we can do better than that!
State top 10 grudge and lets Rock and Roll one topic at a time.
New Guy,
Amir is right. You ask why Mousavi announced his victory the evening of the election day but what do you say about Larijani? Look at this, here is another evidence our votes are rigged.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2009/08/iran-wellinformed-larijani-congratulated-mousavi-on-election-day-report-says.html
“Look at this, here is another evidence our votes are rigged.”
That’s not evidence of anything.
New Guy,
I accept that coming to the streets in an uncivilized way of debating; but who made it into a norm? Well, Khomani. This is his regime; is there any better way to express concerns?
Assume I present evidences for you here what would you do then? Don’t pretend evidences are not dismissed under this (anti-islamic, anti-human) regime. We have not forgotten zahra bani yaghoub’ s case; neither 18 of Tir’s case 10 years ago. According to the official investigation, Mr Allah-karam was found guilty on 18 of Tir case, but what happened? He has got a better position in one of Iranian embassies (as a cultural ambassador!) under Ahmadinejad’s rule…
I don’t really understand what is going on in your head…..!
I said I have not voted for Mousavi for many reasons that if I say you won’t understand. But you like to repeat that over and over to pretend that only supporters of Mousavi have problem with the election. But let me tell you one thing once for all. I could be a supporter of Ahmadinejad if I were a total idiot! Just one example: if you have passed some physics course in high-school, or have been once in a physics lab in your life, you knew that a (16-year-old) girl can not produce nuclear energy in the basement of her house with some materials that she had bought from the local supermarket, as Ahmadinejad says! Only a lunatic can say such a thing. People living in the age of the Internet and information can not have any common language with him and his supports who live thousand years behind in the age of ignorance (jaheliat)!
“We can do better than that” if people we are dealing with are not psychopathic like Ahmadinejadians… you better invite them to the common sense!
To “Amir”
If you prove your claim (Stolen election), I can not do anything (As far as making Mr. Musavi president). But you will be following the path of logic. I have learned that one should follow path of logic and truth, regardless of its end result. It would be beneficial for the readers and future generation (Ooops! Sorry. I thought I was addressing the united nations.)
You cut me red handed. I have not even finished my high school. I have never been in Physics lab and never had a physics class. But, somehow I can not make a connection to your claim of stolen election and physics classes.
I have a suggestion for you. You need to learn to stay focus. We are disusing the vote rigging, and you are telling me about Ahmadinejad’s physics disabilities, or criticizing a dead Khomani. Enough of trying to be logical with you.The readers of these posts should make their own Judgment.
Have a great life in physics lab. REALLY, I am not ridiculing you, I do wish you well.
New Guy,
Your president talks like that too; but we know the tree from its fruit.
I know in your book of truth changing vote results is legitimate (Ayattula Mesbah’s pre-election fatva) and raping prisoners is logical …. Yes, for you couple of naked lies is nothing….
You think you are a born detective, but you have difficulty understanding the difference between “indication” and “evidence”… you have still a lot to learn…
Yes let it be for the readers to judge; but in return to your invitation to go from vanak-valiasr path to the path of truth, I’d like to read aloud to you verses 7-14 of surah 68 (Al-Ghalam)
If you have difficulty understanding its real arabic, ask somebody who knows at least Jame and Soyoti (not like new guys of hozeh who love “street talks”, Michel Foucault, and internet)…. Sorry if it is beyond your age….
Enough said!
I support democracy, but not Theocratic Democracy because mixing religion with true democracy contradicts itself. I also don’t support intervening with other country’s political affairs and as an American, I have better things to do. Let them sort it on their own, let them fight, and let them die if that’s what it takes to learn and evolve.
Wake up Iran! You’re in the dark ages. Religion is evil.
Tell that to the 76% of the U.S. population that calls itself “Christian”.
time to sanction this zionist regime, that warmonger against Iran and spreading lies about all their neighbours, DOWN WITH ZIONISM!
Just wish to say your article is as surprising. The clearness on your post is just spectacular and i could assume you are knowledgeable in this subject. Fine together with your permission allow me to seize your RSS feed to stay updated with impending post. Thank you 1,000,000 and please carry on the rewarding work.